NO.PZ2018091706000056
问题如下:
The emerging market country is more likely to engage in sterilized
intervention if its:
选项:
A.inflation rate is
high
currency is
undervalued
currency appreciation
is caused by push factors rather than pull factors
解释:
A
country would likely choose sterilized intervention if it had a highinflation
rate, because unsterilized intervention would add to the monetary base
andpossibly increase inflationary pressures. B is incorrect because an
undervalued currencyis likely to lessen the probability of intervention,
sterilized or unsterilized, in response tocapital inflows. C is incorrect
because both push and pull factors can lead to bubbleconditions, excessive
exchange rate appreciation, and the unwanted build-up ofexcessive speculative
positions.
解析:如果一个国家的通胀率很高,它很可能会选择冲销干预,因为未冲销干预会增加货币供给量,从而增加通胀压力。A正确。
B是不正确的,因为被低估的货币可能会降低干预的效用,无论是冲销的还是未冲销的干预。
C是不正确的,因为push以及
pull因素都可能导致泡沫状况、汇率过度升值,以及不必要的过度投机仓位。
选C的话,完整的句子是The emerging market country is more likely to engage in sterilized intervention if its: currency appreciation is caused by push factors rather than pull factors。意思是:相较于pull factor导致的货币升值,push factor导致的货币升值更有可能使得新兴市场国家采取外汇冲销干预政策,而不是解释里面说的C选项错在它说pull factors不会导致货币升值。
pull factor就是这个国家本身经济在快速增长,投资回报高,投资机会多,国内需要资金也多,那么这时候政府不太可能进行冲销干预(国内本币供应保持相对稳定),因为这会抑制国内的投资增长。
而push factor是其他国家利率低,导致其他国家的钱流入本国,但本国经济原本可能处于一个均衡状态(并不需要资金流入),那这时候,采用冲销干预可以预防热钱流入导致的通胀。
所以,为什么C说的不对呢?