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yuxy · 2025年05月20日

C选项的解释不明白

NO.PZ2018091706000056

问题如下:

The emerging market country is more likely to engage in sterilized intervention if its:

选项:

A.

inflation rate is high

B.

currency is undervalued

C.

currency appreciation is caused by push factors rather than pull factors

解释:

A country would likely choose sterilized intervention if it had a highinflation rate, because unsterilized intervention would add to the monetary base andpossibly increase inflationary pressures. B is incorrect because an undervalued currencyis likely to lessen the probability of intervention, sterilized or unsterilized, in response tocapital inflows. C is incorrect because both push and pull factors can lead to bubbleconditions, excessive exchange rate appreciation, and the unwanted build-up ofexcessive speculative positions.

解析:如果一个国家的通胀率很高,它很可能会选择冲销干预,因为未冲销干预会增加货币供给量,从而增加通胀压力。A正确。

B是不正确的,因为被低估的货币可能会降低干预的效用,无论是冲销的还是未冲销的干预。

C是不正确的,因为push以及 pull因素都可能导致泡沫状况、汇率过度升值,以及不必要的过度投机仓位。

选C的话,完整的句子是The emerging market country is more likely to engage in sterilized intervention if its: currency appreciation is caused by push factors rather than pull factors。意思是:相较于pull factor导致的货币升值,push factor导致的货币升值更有可能使得新兴市场国家采取外汇冲销干预政策,而不是解释里面说的C选项错在它说pull factors不会导致货币升值。


pull factor就是这个国家本身经济在快速增长,投资回报高,投资机会多,国内需要资金也多,那么这时候政府不太可能进行冲销干预(国内本币供应保持相对稳定),因为这会抑制国内的投资增长。


而push factor是其他国家利率低,导致其他国家的钱流入本国,但本国经济原本可能处于一个均衡状态(并不需要资金流入),那这时候,采用冲销干预可以预防热钱流入导致的通胀。


所以,为什么C说的不对呢?

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2025年05月21日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


pull factor就是这个国家本身经济在快速增长,投资回报高,投资机会多,国内需要资金也多,那么这时候政府不太可能进行冲销干预(国内本币供应保持相对稳定),因为这会抑制国内的投资增长。

Hello,亲爱的同学~

冲销干预的主要政策目标是汇率稳定。因此,如果汇率过度升值,就要执行冲销干预。

本题不能通过抑制经济增长的角度,来否决冲销干预。有3点原因:

1)冲销干预对经济的影响,并非主要的政策考虑因素。

2)冲销干预的目标是,在维持汇率稳定的同时,货币供应量不因为汇率干预而改变。

即使认为货币供应量少了,可以通过其他方式来提高货币供应量,例如央行公开市场操作。不一定要走汇率的途径来提高货币供应量。

3)经济快速增长,投资回报高,也会带动人们的借贷行为,扩大货币乘数,从而自发扩大货币供应量。不能得出经济增长导致货币供应量小于货币需求量的结论。


而push factor是其他国家利率低,导致其他国家的钱流入本国,但本国经济原本可能处于一个均衡状态(并不需要资金流入),那这时候,采用冲销干预可以预防热钱流入导致的通胀。

可以这么理解。


所以,为什么C说的不对呢?

拉动因素(Pull factors):表示某国家经济发展状况良好,可以吸引外资投入。

推动因素(Push factors):较低利率国家的资金,往往在国际资本流动的利好下,被推向境外以获得更高的收益。


新兴市场国家经济发展快,外资流入(pull factors)

新兴市场,利率也高于发达国家,吸引发达国家的资金流入(push factor)


这两个因素都可以推高新兴市场的汇率,过度投机,造成资产泡沫。

因此C错在 rather than pull factors

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