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西红柿面 · 2025年05月09日

Expected Inflation这里

NO.PZ2020012102000010

问题如下:

Looking independently at each of the economic observations below, indicate the country where an analyst would expect to see a strengthening currency for each observation.

选项:

解释:

Note: The italics cells represent the comparatively stronger measure, where an analyst could expect to see a strengthening currency based on the factor being independently reviewed

解析:斜体的单元格代表的是相对较强的币种,分析师可以根据独立评估的因素预计货币会走强。

预期通胀越低的货币越强势

短期利率越高的货币越强势

经济增长越快随的货币越强势

越开放,越能保证外资前来投资的货币越强势

贸易顺差的货币更强势

Expected Inflation这里,预期通胀越高,说明经济越好,而且我看这个预期通胀数据相对温和,温和通胀说明经济更好,可以吸引资本流入呀

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源_品职助教 · 2025年05月12日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


如果只分析Expected Inflation,那么它对汇率的影响就是贬值的。这就是我们二级经济中所学的PPP理论。

这里考虑的是直接影响,温和通胀确实对经济好,但是经济好是直接通过GDP,有利于汇率。所以归根到底,是GDP对汇率的直接影响,而非通胀对汇率的直接影响。

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