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章鱼小圆子 · 2025年05月09日

如果是从2015年开始进入永续增长，为什么计算g的时候能直接用2015年的dps，不是需要预测D1（也就是2016年的dps)

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

NO.PZ2023032701000015

问题如下：

Barton’s manager, George Eckhart, asks her to evaluate the stocks of two companies for possible inclusion in that fund: XRail Company (XRL) and Z-Tarp Limited (ZTL), (see Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1

Selected Stock Data for XRL and ZTL and Additional Market Information

Barton begins her analysis by looking at XRL. After doing some research, she concludes that a reasonable growth estimate for the company is the sustainable growth rate using the most recent year’s retention ratio, and calculates a price for XRL using this information. She makes the following note:

• it will not be possible to use the Gordon growth model for her analysis of XRL.

Using the data in Exhibit 1, Barton’s note about the use of the Gordon growth model to value XRL is most likely:

选项：

A.

correct because the required return on equity is less than the expected growth rate

B.

incorrect because the sustainable growth rate is greater than the US econo­my’s growth rate

C.

incorrect because the required return on equity is greater than the US econ­omy’s growth rate

解释：

The Gordon growth model, shown below, cannot be used when r < g.

In this case r = 8.84% and g = 13.84%

Barton’s calculated growth rate based on the sustainable growth rate model is g = b × ROE, where b = 1 – (DPS/EPS)= [1 – (1.77/3.15)] × 0.316 = 0.1384 = 13.84%

The required return on equity is r = RF + βi[E(RM) – RF] = 0.0294 + (0.94 × 0.0628) = 0.0884 = 8.84%

如果是从2015年开始进入永续增长，为什么计算g的时候能直接用2015年的dps，不是需要预测D1（也就是2016年的dps)

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1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2025年05月09日

同学你好，你问的内容和这道题是不是没有关系？

助教大概知道你在问什么——一般题目会说分红在第1-譬如第5年是高速g1增长的，然后第6年的时候开始按照低速g2永续增长，要求股票价值

你是发现很多题目直接用第6年的D作为计算terminal value的起点对不对？而你认为应该是计算第7年的D来计算terminal value？？

这两种计算方法都是可行的——第一种以第6年的D计算的话，就是PV5 = D6/(r-g),然后把D1到D5和PV5一起折现到0时刻即可求——注意这种方法下，其实D6=D5*(1+g2)，所以其实这个D6已经是GGM中预测的D1的概念了，并不是D0

第二种以第7年的D计算的话，就是PV6 = D7/(r-g),然后把D1到D6和PV6一起折现到0时刻即可求——注意这种方法下，不要忘了D6也是位于第6年年末的一笔现金流，所以别忘了要和PV6一起折现到0时刻，这样算出来的答案和第一种方法是一摸一样的

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NO.PZ2023032701000015问题如下 Barton’s manager, George Eckhart, asks her to evaluate the stocks of two companies for possible inclusion in thfun XRail Company (XRL) anZ-Tarp Limite(ZTL), (see Exhibit 1).Exhibit 1SelecteStota for XRL anZTL anAitionMarket Information Barton begins her analysis looking XRL. After ing some research, she conclus tha reasonable growth estimate for the company is the sustainable growth rate using the most recent year’s retention ratio, ancalculates a prifor XRL using this information. She makes the following note:• it will not possible to use the Gorn growth mol for her analysis of XRL.Using the ta in Exhibit 1, Barton’s note about the use of the Gorn growth mol to value XRL is most likely: A.correbecause the requirereturn on equity is less ththe expectegrowth rateB.incorrebecause the sustainable growth rate is greater ththe US econo­my’s growth rateC.incorrebecause the requirereturn on equity is greater ththe US econ­omy’s growth rate The Gorn growth mol, shown below, cannot usewhen r g.In this case r = 8.84% ang = 13.84%Barton’s calculategrowth rate baseon the sustainable growth rate mol is g = b × ROE, where b = 1 – (S/EPS)= [1 – (1.77/3.15)] × 0.316 = 0.1384 = 13.84%The requirereturn on equity is r = RF + βi[E(RM) – RF] = 0.0294 + (0.94 × 0.0628) = 0.0884 = 8.84% 历史数据得到g=14.48%可以吗

2024-10-06 11:18 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2023032701000015 问题如下 Barton’s manager, George Eckhart, asks her to evaluate the stocks of two companies for possible inclusion in thfun XRail Company (XRL) anZ-Tarp Limite(ZTL), (see Exhibit 1).Exhibit 1SelecteStota for XRL anZTL anAitionMarket Information Barton begins her analysis looking XRL. After ing some research, she conclus tha reasonable growth estimate for the company is the sustainable growth rate using the most recent year’s retention ratio, ancalculates a prifor XRL using this information. She makes the following note:• it will not possible to use the Gorn growth mol for her analysis of XRL.Using the ta in Exhibit 1, Barton’s note about the use of the Gorn growth mol to value XRL is most likely: A.correbecause the requirereturn on equity is less ththe expectegrowth rate B.incorrebecause the sustainable growth rate is greater ththe US econo­my’s growth rate C.incorrebecause the requirereturn on equity is greater ththe US econ­omy’s growth rate The Gorn growth mol, shown below, cannot usewhen r g.In this case r = 8.84% ang = 13.84%Barton’s calculategrowth rate baseon the sustainable growth rate mol is g = b × ROE, where b = 1 – (S/EPS)= [1 – (1.77/3.15)] × 0.316 = 0.1384 = 13.84%The requirereturn on equity is r = RF + βi[E(RM) – RF] = 0.0294 + (0.94 × 0.0628) = 0.0884 = 8.84% A是不是应该是incorrect

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