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lz523 · 2025年04月27日

这个题没太懂,最后第十年少的最多,那么中间每一年怎么办?

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NO.PZ202410180200002403

问题如下:

Evaluate Patel’s ability to generate his retirement needs in 10 years after accounting for the effects of inflation on his small business income and his securities portfolio value

选项:

解释:

Patel requires EUR200,000 of real purchasing power throughout retirement. His pension income will adjust for inflation, so this amounts to EUR50,000 of real income. So, he needs EUR 150,000 of real income from his securities portfolio and his small business income. The effects of inflation on his small business income are as follows if it remains at a nominal amount of EUR120,000 per year: Real business income in 10 years = 120,000 x (1 - 0.05)^10 = 71,848 So, in 10 years, the inflation of 5% annually is expected to reduce the purchasing power of Patel's small business income to EUR71,848. Deducting this amount from EUR150,000 gives a subtotal of EUR78,152. Can the securities portfolio provide this amount of income in 10 years? Applying the following formula to the value of the securities portfolio:

FVIF tx,inflation==[l + r (1-tx)]^T— (1 —π)^ T=[1 + 0.065 (1 — 0)] ^10— (1 — 0.05) ^10 = 1.27840

Multiplying this amount by the current portfolio value of EUR4 million gives EUR5,113,600. The securities portfolio generates a 2% pretax cash distribution taxed annually at a 40% rate; thus, the after-tax distribution is 1.2% of the portfolio value. Cash distribution in real terms in 10 years = 0.012 x 5,113,600 = EUR61,363 Thus, Patel faces an income shortfall in 10 years ofEUR16,789 (= 78,152— 61,363). To cover the shortfall, Patel may have to consider liquidating small portions of his securities portfolio to generate additional cash flow each year. Of course, such reductions will cause a decline in the value of his portfolio, thus also reducing future cash distributions from the portfolio, so these would have to be considered as well.

答案的算法是直接算出 business income十年后的实际购买力,那么中间每一年是否存在缺口为什么不考虑呢?

另外,投资组合也是只计算了最后一年的。

这道题的整体思路,麻烦老师帮忙理顺一下,多谢。

1 个答案

费费_品职助教 · 2025年04月28日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这道题目本质是计算在第十年产生的分红是否足够,而分红率是2%,分红的基础是组合的现值,所以先计算CG=6.5%情况下10年后的FV(这里不考虑税收是因为没有卖出)

在上一步的基础上计算第十年的分红,即FV2%(1-40%)

.教材答案这里对通胀是用了减法处理,可能不容易理解,同学也可以使用讲义上的处理方法:

①实际利率=名义利率—通胀率 → 课后题的做法

②(1+实际利率)=(1+名义利率)/(1+通胀率) → 原版书和讲义上的处理方法

解题思路如下:

1.公司每年分红120,000,考虑10年后通胀影响,用除法为120,000/(1+5%)^10=73669。用减法:120000(1-5%)^10=71848

可以看出两种方法的差距很小


2.组合价值400万在考虑通胀和CG之后的FV=4000000【(1+6.5%)/(1+5%)】^10=4609598


3. 第十年现金分红税后价值=46095982%(1-40%)=55315

4. 而retirement needs缺口=200,000-50,000-【第一步算出的73669或者71848】=78152 或者 76331

 55315小于第四步算出的缺口,所以不能满足


这里需要补充说的一点是:课后第9题是协会勘误之前出的题目,这里的答案是做了简化处理,因为每年分红2%是明显小于通胀率5%的,所以即使我们考虑分红再投资,这部分的占比十分小,所以FV的计算只考虑了capital gain的部分。

如果考试时候碰到类似的题目,比较严谨的做法确实需要既考虑CG又考虑分红的FV,但注意需要满足B=1,并且中间没有任何的卖出。按照新公式的做法分红为56402.4845依然是不能满足缺口的

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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