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西红柿面 · 2025年04月23日

对于Pension reserve fund,会有两套不同的IPS吗?

NO.PZ2023010409000017

问题如下:

The People’s Fund is a pension reserve fund established by the government of Wigitania by setting aside current government surpluses. Its objective is to meet future unfunded social security payments caused by an aging population. The following is an extract from the People’s Fund IPS.

Effective from 2030, the government will have the ability to withdraw assets to meet pension and social security liabilities falling due each year. Actuarial projections estimate annual payouts to be about 5% of the total fund value at that time. Given this level of cash flow, the Fund is expected to maintain most of its asset base for the foreseeable future. As such, 2030 does not represent an ‘end date’ for measurement purposes. A long-term investment horizon remains appropriate at present. However, the appropriate timeframe, risk tolerance, portfolio construction and liquidity profile may change.

What factors does the Board need to consider when reviewing the Fund’s investment horizon?

选项:

解释:

The Board should consider two separate phases when reviewing the Fund’s investment horizon and investment policy: an accumulation phase and a decumulation phase.

Ÿ The accumulation phase lasts until 2030 and allows the Fund to invest with little to no liquidity needs and little concern for interim volatility.

Ÿ The decumulation phase starts after 2030, when the government expects to withdraw about 5% of the assets on an annual basis. The investment horizon, liquidity needs, and risk tolerance will need to be modified during the decumulation phase, which will affect the investment policy.

对于Pension reserve fund,会有两套不同的IPS吗?分别对应Accumulation Phase和Decumulation Phase?

1 个答案

Lucky_品职助教 · 2025年04月24日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


在Pension reserve fund的运作过程中,是有可能存在两套不同的IPS分别对应Accumulation Phase和Decumulation Phase的。这是因为在积累阶段,其投资目标主要是实现资产的长期增值,为未来的养老金支付储备充足的资金。以题目来看,在 2030 年前,该基金几乎没有流动性需求,也较少关注期间的波动,全力聚焦资产的积累。但到了消耗阶段,从 2030 年起政府预计每年提取约 5% 的资产用于养老金和社会保障支付,此时的投资目标转变为在保障资金稳定支出的同时,尽量维持资产的价值。

从风险容忍度方面来说,积累阶段由于时间跨度长,有足够的时间来平滑市场波动带来的影响,所以基金能够承受较高的风险,期望获取更高的收益。然而在消耗阶段,因为需要每年固定地提取资金,为了保证资金的稳定供应,对风险的容忍度会显著降低。一旦投资出现较大亏损,就可能无法满足养老金的支付需求。

在流动性需求上,积累阶段几乎不需要考虑流动性问题,可以将大部分资金投入到流动性相对较差但预期收益较高的资产中,比如长期的股票投资、房地产投资等。但进入消耗阶段后,每年都有资金提取的需求,这就要求资产具有一定的流动性,以确保能顺利变现来满足支付需求。

基于投资目标、风险容忍度和流动性需求的不同,两个阶段的投资组合构建必然有所区别。积累阶段,投资组合可能侧重于高风险高回报的资产类别,股票的占比可能较高。而消耗阶段,为了保障资金安全和流动性,投资组合会更倾向于固定收益类资产,如债券,同时也会配置一定比例流动性好的资产,如货币基金等。

综上所述,考虑到积累阶段和消耗阶段在多方面都存在明显差异,所以为了更有效地管理养老金储备基金,很可能会制定两套不同的 IPS,分别针对这两个阶段进行精准的投资规划和管理。

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