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mino酱是个小破货 · 2025年04月21日

很容易选对答案,但B项读不懂,谢谢

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NO.PZ202405210200000202

问题如下:

A limitation of the econometric model approach for forecasting that Clark might conclude is:

选项:

A.Past forecast errors can be ignored as an additional explanatory variable into the model.

B.Econometric models require the user to find adequate measures (which may be unavailable) for the real-world activities and relationships to be modeled.

C.Relationships among the variables rarely, if ever, change over time because of changes in economic structure and/or because the model may have been based on faulty assumptions as to how the economy works.

解释:

Econometric models require the user to find adequate measures (which may be unavailable) for the real-world activities and relationships to be modeled.

Answer Choice (A) is incorrect. Past forecast errors are incorporated into the model as an additional explanatory variable. Answer Choice (C) is also incorrect. Relationships among the variables may change over time because of changes in economic structure and/or because the model may have been based on faulty assumptions as to how the economy works.

计量经济学模型要求使用者为需要建模的现实经济活动及关系找到恰当的衡量指标(这些指标可能并不存在)。

选项(A)错误:过去的预测误差被作为额外解释变量纳入模型。选项(C)错误:由于经济结构的变化,或模型可能基于对经济运行机制的错误假设,变量间的关系可能随时间改变。

烦请老师指教,感觉很奇怪,估计误差怎么能做自变量去解释model呢?谢谢

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2025年04月21日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


计量经济模型的核心在于用数学方程描述经济变量间的关系。然而,构建模型时,必须为现实中的经济活动和关系找到合适的可量化指标。B说的就是这个意思。例如,衡量“消费者信心”可能需要依赖调查数据,而这些数据可能存在滞后或不准确。若无法获得恰当指标(如某些软数据或前瞻性变量),模型将无法准确反映现实,导致预测偏差。这正是计量模型的一大局限,因此选项B正确。

不客气~

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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2024-07-23 08:59 1 · 回答