源_品职助教 · 2025年04月18日
嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：
这题说的是依据Based on Observation 3做出结论
Observation 3说的是Y过当前是SLOWDOWN，但是收益率曲线要开始反映contractionary conditions了。
这里要搞清楚，题目其实问的是contractionary而非SLOWDOWN。（Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to，当前SLOWDOWN，接下来会怎么样）
所以本题答案也没有问题哦。
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努力的时光都是限量版，加油！
NO.PZ2018091901000054 问题如下 Neshie Wakuluk is investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s prections:Wakuluk cis to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:Observation 3 The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions.Baseon Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yielcurve in the neterm to: invert. B.flatten. C.steepen C is correct. The current yielurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase(curve is flto inverte, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionarycontions (i.e., bonyiel are clining). The curve will most likelysteepen neterm, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phaseof the business cycle, anthe steepest on the cusp of the initirecoveryphase. 解析Y国目前的收益率曲线表明，商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向)，债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡，与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致，并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。所以只有C正确。 题目说bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions，也就是开始收缩，在下行的初期，那接下来不应该是曲线继续深化倒挂，然后趋于平坦，再steepen吗？为什么直接steepen了？
NO.PZ2018091901000054 问题如下 Neshie Wakuluk is investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s prections:Wakuluk cis to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:Observation 3 The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions.Baseon Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yielcurve in the neterm to: invert. B.flatten. C.steepen C is correct. The current yielurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase(curve is flto inverte, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionarycontions (i.e., bonyiel are clining). The curve will most likelysteepen neterm, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phaseof the business cycle, anthe steepest on the cusp of the initirecoveryphase. 解析Y国目前的收益率曲线表明，商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向)，债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡，与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致，并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。所以只有C正确。 不是很理解题目的问题，到底是在问哪个阶段slowwn phase，还是contractionary contions。有看助教的回答，是说目前处于slowwn phase，题目询问的是contractionary contions，但是是如何看出来的？？
NO.PZ2018091901000054 问题如下 Neshie Wakuluk is investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s prections:Wakuluk cis to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:Observation 3 The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions.Baseon Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yielcurve in the neterm to: invert. B.flatten. C.steepen C is correct. The current yielurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase(curve is flto inverte, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionarycontions (i.e., bonyiel are clining). The curve will most likelysteepen neterm, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phaseof the business cycle, anthe steepest on the cusp of the initirecoveryphase. 解析Y国目前的收益率曲线表明，商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向)，债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡，与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致，并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。所以只有C正确。 contraction到initirecovery才是说曲线变steepen从slow wn到contraction，应该是flatten到convert吧
NO.PZ2018091901000054 问题如下 Neshie Wakuluk is investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s prections:Wakuluk cis to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:Observation 3 The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions.Baseon Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yielcurve in the neterm to: invert. B.flatten. C.steepen C is correct. The current yielurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase(curve is flto inverte, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionarycontions (i.e., bonyiel are clining). The curve will most likelysteepen neterm, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phaseof the business cycle, anthe steepest on the cusp of the initirecoveryphase. 解析Y国目前的收益率曲线表明，商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向)，债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡，与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致，并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。所以只有C正确。 在slowwn阶段，因为央行加息或者加准，短期利率很高，yielcurve变平，则下一个阶段可能是降准降息，曲线steepen。但如果slowwn阶段曲线invert了，他降低短期利率至少得先变平，再变陡峭，此题没考虑这种情况
