NO.PZ202105270100000302
问题如下：
Robert Hadpret is the chief economist at Agree Partners, an asset management firm located in the developed country of Eastland. He has prepared an economic report on Eastland for the firm’s asset allocation committee. Hadpret notes that the composite index of leading economic indicators has declined for three consecutive months and that the yield curve has inverted. Private sector borrowing is also projected to decline. Based on these recent events, Hadpret predicts an economic contraction and forecasts lower inflation and possibly deflation over the next 12 months.
Helen Smitherman, a portfolio manager at Agree, considers Hadpret’s economic forecast when determining the tactical allocation for the firm’s Balanced Fund (the fund). Smitherman notes that the fund has considerable exposure to real estate, shares of asset-intensive and commodity-producing firms, and high-quality debt. The fund’s cash holdings are at cyclical lows.
In response to the projected cyclical decline in the Eastland economy and in private sector borrowing over the next year, Hadpret expects a change in the monetary and fiscal policy mix. He forecasts that the Eastland central bank will ease monetary policy.On the fiscal side, Hadpret expects the Eastland government to enact a substantial tax cut. As a result, Hadpret forecasts large government deficits that will be financed by the issuance of long-term government securities.
Discuss the relationship between the shape of the yield curve and the monetary and fiscal policy mix projected by Hadpret.
选项：
解释：
Hadpret expects that, in response to a forecasted contraction in the Eastland economy, the central bank will ease monetary policy and the government will enact an expansionary fiscal policy. This policy mix has an impact on the shape of the yield curve.
The impact of changes in monetary policy on the yield curve are fairly clear, because changes in the yield curve’s slope—its flattening or steepening—are largely determined by the expected movement in short rates. This movement, in turn, is determined by the expected path of monetary policy and the state of the economy. With the central bank easing and the economy contracting, policy rates will be declining and will be expected to decline further as the central bank aims to counteract downward momentum in the economy. Bond yields also decline but by a lesser amount, so the yield curve steepens. The yield curve will typically continue to steepen during the contraction phase as the central bank continues to ease, reaching its steepest point just before the initial recovery phase.
Fiscal policy may affect the shape of the yield curve through the relative supply of bonds at various maturities that the government issues to fund deficits. Unlike the impact of monetary policy, the impact of changes in the supply of securities on the yield curve is unclear. The evidence seems to suggest that sufficiently large purchases/sales at different maturities will have only a temporary impact on yields. As a result, the large government budget deficits forecasted by Hadpret are unlikely to have much of a lasting impact on the yield curve, especially given that private sector borrowing will be falling during the contraction, somewhat offsetting the increase in the supply of government securities
Hadpret预计，为了应对东部地区经济预期的收缩，中央银行将放松货币政策，政府将实施扩张性财政政策。这种政策组合对收益率曲线的形状有影响。
货币政策变化对收益率曲线的影响是相当明显的，因为收益率曲线斜率的变化——变平还是变陡——在很大程度上取决于短期利率的预期变化。这一移动又是由预期的货币政策路径和经济状况决定的。随着央行放松政策和经济收缩，政策利率将下降，并预计将进一步下降，因为央行旨在抵消经济的下行势头。债券收益率也在下降，但下降幅度较小，因此收益率曲线变陡。随着央行继续放松政策，收益率曲线通常会在收缩阶段继续变陡，在最初的复苏阶段之前达到最陡点。
财政政策可能通过政府为填补赤字而发行的各种到期债券的相对供应来影响收益率曲线的形状。与货币政策的影响不同，证券供应变化对收益率曲线的影响尚不清楚。有证据表明，在不同期限进行足够大规模的购买/出售，只会对收益率产生暂时影响。因此，Hadpret预测的巨额政府预算赤字不太可能对收益率曲线产生太大的持久影响，尤其是考虑到在紧缩期间私营部门借款将下降，在一定程度上抵消了政府债券供应的增加
Hadpret expects a change in the monetary and fiscal policy mix. The monetary policy is eased and the fiscal policy is eased too.
Ease in monetary policy could influence the short term rate so the short term rate would decrease. Long term rate would be decreased too but less than short term. So the shape of the yield curve could be steepen.
Ease in fiscal policy could bring increase on interest rate because government have more bond to issue. But the total effect is unknow because private sector might decrease the bond issuing. In total the shape of the yield curve is unknown.