NO.PZ202105270100000301
问题如下：
Robert Hadpret is the chief economist at Agree Partners, an asset management firm located in the developed country of Eastland. He has prepared an economic report on Eastland for the firm’s asset allocation committee. Hadpret notes that the composite index of leading economic indicators has declined for three consecutive months and that the yield curve has inverted. Private sector borrowing is also projected to decline. Based on these recent events, Hadpret predicts an economic contraction and forecasts lower inflation and possibly deflation over the next 12 months.
Helen Smitherman, a portfolio manager at Agree, considers Hadpret’s economic forecast when determining the tactical allocation for the firm’s Balanced Fund (the fund). Smitherman notes that the fund has considerable exposure to real estate, shares of asset-intensive and commodity-producing firms, and high-quality debt. The fund’s cash holdings are at cyclical lows.
Discuss the implications of Hadpret’s inflation forecast on the expected returns of the fund’s holdings of:
i. cash.
ii. bonds.
iii. equities.
iv. real estate
选项：
解释：
Cash :
The fund benefits from its cyclically low holdings of cash. With the economy contracting and inflation falling, short-term rates will likely be in a sharp decline. Cash, or short-term interest-bearing instruments, is unattractive in such an environment. However, deflation may make cash particularly attractive if a “zero lower bound” is binding on the nominal interest rate. Otherwise, deflation is simply a component of the required short-term real rate.
Bonds :
The fund’s holdings of high-quality bonds will benefit from falling inflation or deflation. Falling inflation results in capital gains as the expected inflation component of bond yields falls. Persistent deflation benefits the highest-quality bonds because it increases the purchasing power of their cash flows. It will, however, impair the creditworthiness of lower-quality debt.
Equities :
The fund’s holdings of asset-intensive and commodity-producing firms will be negatively affected by falling inflation or deflation. Within the equity market, higher inflation benefits firms with the ability to pass along rising costs. In contrast, falling inflation or deflation is especially detrimental for asset-intensive and commodity-producing firms unable to pass along the price increases
Real Estate :
The fund’s real estate holdings will be negatively affected by falling inflation or deflation. Falling inflation or deflation will put downward pressure on expected rental income and property values. Especially negatively affected will be sub-prime properties that may have to cut rents sharply to avoid rising vacancies
Cash:
该基金得益于其持有的现金处于周期性低位。随着经济收缩和通胀下降，短期利率可能会急剧下降。Cash，或短期计息工具，在这种环境下是没有吸引力的。然而，如果名义利率受到“零下限”的约束，通缩可能会让现金变得特别有吸引力。否则，通缩仅仅是必需的短期实际利率的一个组成部分。
Bonds:
持有的高质量债券将受益于通胀的下降或是通缩。通胀下降导致资本利得，因为债券收益率的通胀预期部分同样下降。持续的通货紧缩对高质量债券有利，因为它增加了债券现金流的购买力。然而，这将损害较低质量债务的信誉。
Equities:
该基金持有的资产密集型资产和大宗商品将受到通胀下降或通缩的负面影响。在股票市场中，较高的通货膨胀率有利于那些有能力将上升的成本转嫁出去的公司。相反，通货膨胀下降或通货紧对资产密集型和大宗商品生产企业尤其不利，因为它们无法将价格上涨传递出去
Real Estate :
该基金的房地产持有将受到通货膨胀下降或通货紧缩的负面影响。通货膨胀下降或通货紧缩将给预期的租金收入和房产价值带来下行压力。受影响最严重的将是次级房产，它们可能不得不大幅降低租金，以避免空置率上升。
Hadpret predicts an economic contraction and forecasts lower inflation and possibly deflation over the next 12 months.
i. Cash：Holding cash is not good. Lower inflation and possibly deflation decrease the interest rate and holding cash is not appropriate. However, when the interest rate is negative, holding cash have better effect because the cash has a zero-lower-bond.
ii. bonds：Holding bonds is good. Lower inflation and possibly deflation could hurt purchasing power, bond has regular cash flow so it can protect purchasing power.
iii. equities：Holding equities is not good. Lower inflation and possibly deflation could harm public companies profit if they can not pass the effect to the customers. Especially for those asset-intensive and commodity business related companies.
iv. real estate：Holding real estate is not good. Lower inflation and possibly deflation could cause the rent rate drop much larger than the discount rate. So the value of the property would decrease.