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寒玉 · 2025年04月13日

请解答此题,没看懂在问啥

NO.PZ2019040801000057

问题如下:

There is a problem with the first-order moving average [MA(1)] process.  Which of the following statements represents the problem and how to resolve it? The problem is the moving average representation of the MA(1) process:

选项:

A.

incorporate only observable shocks, so the solution is to use a moving average representation.

B.

incorporate unobservable shocks, so the solution is to use a moving average representation.

C.

incorporate unobservable shocks, so the solution is to use an autoregressive representation.

D.

incorporate only observable shocks, so the solution is to use an autoregressive representation.

解释:

C is correct.

考点:一阶移动平均

解析:一阶移动平均的问题在于它无法根据无法观察的白噪声冲击估计一个变量,解决方法是转换成自回归模型,使用可观察的项。

请解答此题,没看懂在问啥

1 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2025年04月13日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


题目问你,MA(1)模型的主要缺点是什么?如何解决这个问题?


MA(1)模型主要是根据shocks进行预测,但是shocks在实际的金融市场是无法被精确观察到的,所以MA(1)的应用价值较低。解决办法就是替换成自回归模型(就是Auto Regression Model),因为自回归模型用的是变量本身的滞后项(就是用昨天或者更早的数据)进行预测,滞后项是可以被精准的观察到的。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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