不知人均GDP下降跟政治因素什么关系？

NO.PZ202105270100000504 问题如下 Juth Bar is a senior analyst for a company thspecializes in managing internationvelopeanemerging markets equities. Next week, Bar must present proposechanges to client portfolios to the Investment Committee, anshe is preparing a presentation to support the views unrlying her recommentions. Bar begins analyzing portfolio risk. She cis to forecast a variance– covarianmatrix (VCV) for 20 asset classes, using 10 years of monthly returns anincorporating both the sample statistianthe factor-mol metho. To mitigate the impaof estimation error, Bar is consiring combining the results of the two metho in alternative target Vmatrix, using shrinkage estimation. Bar asks her researassistant to comment on the two approaches anthe benefits of applying shrinkage estimation. The assistant makes the following statements: Statement 1 Shrinkage estimation of Vmatrices will crease the efficienof the estimates versus the sample Vmatrix. Statement 2 Your proposeapproafor estimating the Vmatrix will not reliable because a sample Vmatrix is biaseaninconsistent. Statement 3 A factor-baseVmatrix approamresult in some portfolios therroneously appeto riskless if any asset returns ccompletely terminethe common factors or some of the factors are rennt. Bar then uses the Singer–Terhamol anthe finshrinkage-estimateVmatrix to termine the equilibrium expecteequity returns for all internationasset classes country. Three of the markets unr consiration are locatein Country A (velopemarket), Country B (emerging market), anCountry C (emerging market). Bar projects thin relation to the globmarket, the equity market in Country A will remain highly integrate the equity market in Country B will become more segmente anthe equity market in Country C will become more fully integrate Next, Bar applies the GrinolKroner mol to estimate the expecteequity returns for the various markets unr consiration. For Country Bar assumes a very long-term corporate earnings growth rate of 4% per ye(equto the expectenominG growth rate), a 2% rate of net share repurchases for Country A’s equities, anexpansion rate for P/E multiples of 0.5% per year. In reviewing Countries B anBar’s researassistant comments themerging markets are especially risky owing to issues relateto politics, competition, anaccounting stanr. example, Bar anher assistant scuss the risk implications of the following information relateto Country Experiencing clining per capita income Expecteto continue its persistent current account ficit below 2% of G Transitioning to InternationFinanciReporting Stanr, with full convergenscheleto completewithin two yearsBar shifts her focus to currenexpectations relative to clients’ base currenansummarizes her assumptions in Exhibit 1. ring a conversation about Exhibit 1, Bar anher researassistant scuss the composition of eacountry’s currenportfolio anthe potentifor triggering a crisis. Bar notes thsome flows anholngs are more or less supportive of the currency, stating thinvestments in private equity make up the majority of CountryA’s currenportfolio, investments in public equity make up the majority of Country B’s currenportfolio, aninvestments in public make up the majority of Country C’s currenportfolio. Baseonly on the emerging markets scussion, velopments in whiof the following aremost likely signincreasing risk for Country B’s equity market? A.Politi B.Competitiveness C.Accounting stanr A is correct. Per capita income for Country B hbeen falling, whiis a potentisourof politicstress.B is incorrebecause the persistent current account ficit hbeen below 2% of G. Persistent current account ficits greater th4% of G probably incate a laof competitiveness.C is incorrebecause Country B hbeen transitioning to InternationFinanciReporting Stanr, with full convergenexpectewithin two years, whiis a positive velopment for better accounting stanr. B国的人均收入一直在下降，这是一个潜在的政治压力来源。B是错误的，因为持续的经常账户赤字一直低于G的2%。持续的经常账户赤字超过G的4%，这可能意味着缺乏竞争力。C是不正确的，因为B国一直在向国际财务报告准则过渡，预计在两年内完全趋同，这是更好的会计准则的积极发展。 Experiencing clining per capita income 这个为什么是Politics相关的呢？

NO.PZ202105270100000504 问题如下 Baseonly on the emerging markets scussion, velopments in whiof the following aremost likely signincreasing risk for Country B’s equity market? A.Politi B.Competitiveness C.Accounting stanr A is correct. Per capita income for Country B hbeen falling, whiis a potentisourof politicstress.B is incorrebecause the persistent current account ficit hbeen below 2% of G. Persistent current account ficits greater th4% of G probably incate a laof competitiveness.C is incorrebecause Country B hbeen transitioning to InternationFinanciReporting Stanr, with full convergenexpectewithin two years, whiis a positive velopment for better accounting stanr. B国的人均收入一直在下降，这是一个潜在的政治压力来源。B是错误的，因为持续的经常账户赤字一直低于G的2%。持续的经常账户赤字超过G的4%，这可能意味着缺乏竞争力。C是不正确的，因为B国一直在向国际财务报告准则过渡，预计在两年内完全趋同，这是更好的会计准则的积极发展。 1、A为啥是politics讲义关于politicrisk（willingness to pay），只提到了以下4点，也没提高人均G吧。另外人均G下降，我理解属于ability to pay，应该属于economic risk吧，怎么就属于politicrisk（willingness to pay），更多是还款能力而不是还款意愿吧· 较弱的产权法（property right）、较弱的合同法实施主权豁免（sovereign immunity），即投资他国资产不受到本国法律保护（legrisk）· 财产充公，公司国有化，腐败（politicrisk）· 两党多政府引发政治不稳定性（politicrisk）· 资本管制，限制货币转换（没有将外币换回本币的渠道）（politicrisk）2、另外关于B看讲义应该是economic risk吧（经常账户赤字/G小于4%），答案解析为啥是competitive

NO.PZ202105270100000504问题如下Baseonly on the emerging markets scussion, velopments in whiof the following aremost likely signincreasing risk for Country B’s equity market?A.PoliticsB.CompetitivenessC.Accounting stanr A is correct. Per capita income for Country B hbeen falling, whiis a potentisourof politicstress.B is incorrebecause the persistent current account ficit hbeen below 2% of G. Persistent current account ficits greater th4% of G probably incate a laof competitiveness.C is incorrebecause Country B hbeen transitioning to InternationFinanciReporting Stanr, with full convergenexpectewithin two years, whiis a positive velopment for better accounting stanr. B国的人均收入一直在下降，这是一个潜在的政治压力来源。B是错误的，因为持续的经常账户赤字一直低于G的2%。持续的经常账户赤字超过G的4%，这可能意味着缺乏竞争力。C是不正确的，因为B国一直在向国际财务报告准则过渡，预计在两年内完全趋同，这是更好的会计准则的积极发展。 如题，原版书哪里提到了这一点呢

NO.PZ202105270100000504 问题如下 Baseonly on the emerging markets scussion, velopments in whiof the following aremost likely signincreasing risk for Country B’s equity market? A.Politi B.Competitiveness C.Accounting stanr A is correct. Per capita income for Country B hbeen falling, whiis a potentisourof politicstress.B is incorrebecause the persistent current account ficit hbeen below 2% of G. Persistent current account ficits greater th4% of G probably incate a laof competitiveness.C is incorrebecause Country B hbeen transitioning to InternationFinanciReporting Stanr, with full convergenexpectewithin two years, whiis a positive velopment for better accounting stanr. B国的人均收入一直在下降，这是一个潜在的政治压力来源。B是错误的，因为持续的经常账户赤字一直低于G的2%。持续的经常账户赤字超过G的4%，这可能意味着缺乏竞争力。C是不正确的，因为B国一直在向国际财务报告准则过渡，预计在两年内完全趋同，这是更好的会计准则的积极发展。 如果经常账户赤字大，就说明进口多而出口少，就说明商品在国际市场上不具备竞争力，应该是利空呀，为什么是利好？

NO.PZ202105270100000504问题如下Baseonly on the emerging markets scussion, velopments in whiof the following aremost likely signincreasing risk for Country B’s equity market?A.PoliticsB.CompetitivenessC.Accounting stanr A is correct. Per capita income for Country B hbeen falling, whiis a potentisourof politicstress.B is incorrebecause the persistent current account ficit hbeen below 2% of G. Persistent current account ficits greater th4% of G probably incate a laof competitiveness.C is incorrebecause Country B hbeen transitioning to InternationFinanciReporting Stanr, with full convergenexpectewithin two years, whiis a positive velopment for better accounting stanr. B国的人均收入一直在下降，这是一个潜在的政治压力来源。B是错误的，因为持续的经常账户赤字一直低于G的2%。持续的经常账户赤字超过G的4%，这可能意味着缺乏竞争力。C是不正确的，因为B国一直在向国际财务报告准则过渡，预计在两年内完全趋同，这是更好的会计准则的积极发展。 B，怎么知道持续经常账户赤字4%才是不好的呢？