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幸运是努力带来的 · 2025年04月09日

C选项

NO.PZ2023040502000045

问题如下:

Luke examines West Texas Intermediate (WTI) monthly crudeoil price data, expressed in US dollars per barrel, for the 181-month period fromAugust 2000 through August 2015.


Based on the data for the AR(1) model( the critical value is 1.97), he can concludethat the:

选项:

A.

residuals are not serially correlated.

B.

autocorrelations do not differ significantly from zero.

C.

standard error for each of the autocorrelations is0.0745.

解释:

The standard error of the autocorrelations iscalculated as , where Trepresents the number of observations used in the regression. Therefore, thestandard error for each of the autocorrelations is = 0.0745.Martinezcan conclude that the residuals are serially correlated and are significantlydifferent from zero because two of the four autocorrelations in Exhibit 2 havea t-statistic in absolute value that is greater than the critical value of1.97.

Choices A and B areincorrect because two of the four autocorrelations have at-statistic inabsolute value that is greater than the critical value of the t-statistic of1.97.

C选项说,所有自相关的标准误都是一样的,用根号下180的倒数计算出来的。我的问题是lag1和Lag4的标准误为什么都是一样的?lag4的标准误计算应该用180-4呀

1 个答案

品职助教_七七 · 2025年04月09日

这个根号下的数字是根据AR方程的observations算出来的,不是根据lag对应的observations。 即无论lag是多少,因为AR方程是不变的,所以就都不会影响到标准误的公式。

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NO.PZ2023040502000045 问题如下 Luke examines West TexIntermeate (WTI) monthly cruoil pritexpressein US llars per barrel, for the 181-month periofromAugust 2000 through August 2015.Baseon the ta for the AR(1) mol( the criticvalue is 1.97), he cconcluththe: A.resials are not serially correlate B.autocorrelations not ffer significantly from zero. C.stanrerror for eaof the autocorrelations is0.0745. The stanrerror of the autocorrelations iscalculate, where Trepresents the number of observations usein the regression. Therefore, thestanrerror for eaof the autocorrelations is = 0.0745.Martinezcconclu ththe resials are serially correlateanare significantlyfferent from zero because two of the four autocorrelations in Exhibit 2 havea t-statistic in absolute value this greater ththe criticvalue of1.97.Choices A anB areincorrebecause two of the four autocorrelations have at-statistic inabsolute value this greater ththe criticvalue of the t-statistic of1.97. 请问题目中的Lag3以及Lag4,t-statistic是小于1.96的,也就是不能拒绝Ho在不能拒绝Ho的情况下,是不是表示就存在autocorrelation的现象呢? 我记得课上说只要Lag1-4中有任何一个接受H0,就需要修正了那么B中所述“autocorrelations not ffer significantly from zero.”错在哪里呢?

2024-04-17 10:16 1 · 回答

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