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小杨yu · 2025年04月08日

请详细分析为什么C不对，我觉得是多选题

  1. CFA II
  2. Economics Analysis

NO.PZ2018091706000056

问题如下：

The emerging market country is more likely to engage in sterilized intervention if its:

选项：

A.

inflation rate is high

B.

currency is undervalued

C.

currency appreciation is caused by push factors rather than pull factors

解释：

A country would likely choose sterilized intervention if it had a highinflation rate, because unsterilized intervention would add to the monetary base andpossibly increase inflationary pressures. B is incorrect because an undervalued currencyis likely to lessen the probability of intervention, sterilized or unsterilized, in response tocapital inflows. C is incorrect because both push and pull factors can lead to bubbleconditions, excessive exchange rate appreciation, and the unwanted build-up ofexcessive speculative positions.

解析：如果一个国家的通胀率很高，它很可能会选择冲销干预，因为未冲销干预会增加货币供给量，从而增加通胀压力。A正确。

B是不正确的，因为被低估的货币可能会降低干预的效用，无论是冲销的还是未冲销的干预。

C是不正确的，因为push以及 pull因素都可能导致泡沫状况、汇率过度升值，以及不必要的过度投机仓位。

为什么C不对，如果push/pull导致本国汇率提升，热钱涌入，然后央行降低风险，采用sterilized intervention，感觉也不是完全说不通啊，A说到inflation当然是没问题，但感觉更加间接而非本币appreciate直接

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1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2025年04月09日

嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：


拉动因素（Pull factors）：表示某国家经济发展状况良好，可以吸引外资投入。

推动因素（Push factors）：较低利率国家的资金，往往在国际资本流动的利好下，被推向境外以获得更高的收益。


新兴市场国家经济发展快，外资流入(pull factors)

新兴市场，利率也高于发达国家，吸引发达国家的资金流入（push factor）


这两个因素都可以推高新兴市场的汇率，过度投机，造成资产泡沫。


C不对是因为C的阐述里，认为升值的原因，是 push factors造成升值，pull factors造成贬值，因此如果push超过pull，净影响是升值。

而在知识点里，这两个因素都会造成升值。不存在两者对比的问题。

因此C把升值的原因找错了。这里需要理解，出题人之所以给出C选项，他的出题意图。

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