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倩仔 · 2025年03月21日

exposure计算

NO.PZ2019011002000002

问题如下:

Tim, a credit analyst, is valuing bond B. Bond B is a 5-year corporate bond with a par value of $1000. The bond has a fixed annual coupon rate of 6%, and the coupon is paid annually.

Tim believes that the risk-neutral probability of default (Hazard rate) for each date for the bond is 1.50%, and the recovery rate is 25%. Assume there is no interest rate volatility and the government bond yield curve is flat at 2%.

According to the information above, the fair value of bond B is closet to:

选项:

A.

1083.29

B.

1129.86

C.

1231.29

解释:

B is correct.

考点:考察对Credit risk计量,从而计算Fair value。

解析:

本题按照步骤计算债券价值即可,与上一题的区别是本题的债券每期有Coupon。

第一步:计算每一期的Exposure;第五期的Exposure为1060;

第四期的Exposure,为债券第五年现金流在第四期的现值,加上第四期的Coupon;

即:

60+1060(1+2%)=1099.2260+\frac{1060}{(1+2\%)}=1099.22

第三期的Exposure,为债券第四年,第五年现金流在第三期的现值,加上第三期的Coupon;

即:

60+60(1+2%)+1060(1+2%)2=1137.6660+\frac{60}{(1+2\%)}+\frac{1060}{(1+2\%)^2}=1137.66

依次类推可以计算出每一期的Exposure;计算CVA的步骤和上题一致;有表格:

用2%的无风险利率对该债券进行折现,得到的现值为:1188.538

则可以得到债券的Fair value为:1188.538 - 58.6754 = 1129.86

请问第一个时间点的exposure如果用N=4, I/Y=2, PMT=60, FV=1000来算PV,这种方法哪里不对呢?

1 个答案

吴昊_品职助教 · 2025年03月21日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


某个时间点的exposure的意思是该时间点的总头寸(价值),也就是该时间点的风险敞口。债券求某个时间点的价值,也就是①未来现金流折到该时间点再加上②该时间点的coupon,两部分加总起来构成了整个该时间点的exposure。

你的这种计算方法,只是未来现金流折现求和,未来的四笔现金流折现到1时刻,但是忘记加了1时刻自身的coupon。

N=4, I/Y=2, PMT=60, FV=1000,求得PV=1152.31,再加上当期的coupon60,得1152.31+60=1212.31

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