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Alice_090 · 2025年03月12日

想要一个很高的概率实现endowment，所以选择风险最小的，所以选择fi最多的，请问这个逻辑是哪里不对呢？

  1. CFA III
  2. Asset Allocation

* 问题详情，请 查看题干

NO.PZ201710200200000107

问题如下：

7. Based on Exhibit 1, which portfolio best meets the Laws’ goal to fund an endowment for their alma mater?

选项：

A.

Portfolio 1

B.

Portfolio 2

C.

Portfolio 3

解释：

B is correct.

Portfolio 2 best meets the Laws’ goal to fund an endowment for their alma mater in 20 years. In present value terms, the gift is valued at $500,000, with the Laws desiring a high probability of achieving this goal. Although slightly more conservative than the 75/25 global equity/bond mix, Portfolio 2 has a greater growth emphasis compared with Portfolios 1 and 3. Therefore, Portfolio 2 is best for funding the endowment at their alma mater given the goal’s long-term horizon and the Laws’ desire for a high probability of achieving it.

考点：goal-based approach

解析：投资期：20 years，长期。实现目标的程度：high probability（与education expense的very strong desire相比，程度略低）。

因为投资期长，所以cash占比可以放低：portfolio 1 cash占比35%偏高，排除。

因为实现目标的程度高，但不是非要满足，所以可以承担一些风险。Portfolio 2和3的差别不仅仅只有diversifying strategy，还有fixed income和global equities。发现portfolio 2的FI占比低，GE占比很高，虽然diversifying strategy略低于portfolio 3，但是由于投资了大量的股票，所以portfolio 2整体上更有成长空间。

The Laws tell Raye they want a high probability of success funding the endowment. 

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1 个答案

Lucky_品职助教 · 2025年03月12日

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：


错误在于没有全面考虑投资目标、投资期限和风险收益关系。虽然FI通常被认为风险较低，但在实现长期且期望高成功率的投资目标时，不能仅依据风险高低来选择资产配置。

该投资目标期限长达 20 年，属于长期投资。在长期投资中，股票资产虽风险较高，但从历史数据和经济发展规律来看，其具备更高的潜在回报和增长空间。固定收益资产收益相对稳定、增长缓慢，难以在 20 年内积累足够资金达成现值 50 万美元的捐赠目标。

实现捐赠目标需要较高成功率，但并非要完全规避风险。适当承担风险可以获取更高收益，增加达成目标的可能性。Portfolio 2 中Global Equities占比 65%，虽然FI占比低，但股票的高增长潜力能让资产有更大增值空间，在 20 年时间里更有可能积累足够资金。相比之下，Portfolio 3 固定收益占比 30%，虽风险降低，但整体资产增值速度可能无法满足捐赠目标需求。

题干中明确要求高概率实现捐赠目标，这并非意味着选择风险最低的组合。在长期投资中，要综合考虑资产的增长潜力和风险承受能力。Portfolio 1 中现金占比 35%，过高的现金配置使得资产增值速度受限，难以满足长期投资目标。而 Portfolio 2 通过合理配置股票资产，在可承受风险范围内追求更高收益，更符合高概率实现捐赠目标的要求。


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