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添晴 · 2025年03月12日

为什么不用单尾?

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NO.PZ202306130100003505

问题如下:

Using information from Exhibit 2, the 99 percent prediction interval for Amtex share return for Month 37 is best described as:

选项:

A.

Yˆ f ± 0.0053.

B.

Yˆ f ± 0.0469.

C.

Yˆ f ± 0.1279.

解释:

C is correct. The predicted share return is 0.0095 + [0.2354 × (−0.01)] = 0.0071.

The lower limit for the prediction interval is 0.0071 − (2.728 × 0.0469) = −0.1208, and the upper limit for the prediction interval is 0.0071 + (2.728 × 0.0469) =0.1350.

A is incorrect because the bounds of the interval should be based on the standard error of the forecast and the critical t-value, not on the mean of the dependent variable.

B is incorrect because bounds of the interval are based on the product of the standard error of the forecast and the critical t-value, not simply the standard error of the forecast.

请问,什么时候用单尾?

1 个答案

品职助教_七七 · 2025年03月13日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


数量科目中(无论是一级还是二级),所有的置信区间都是“双尾”的情况,没有单尾。

只有在组合中VaR的知识点下,才有单尾置信区间的情况。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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NO.PZ202306130100003505 问题如下 Elena Vasileva recently joineEnergyInvest a junior portfolio analyst. Vasileva’s supervisor asks her to evaluate a potentiinvestment opportunity in Amtex, a multinationoil angcorporation basein the UniteStates. Vasileva’s supervisor suggests using regression analysis to examine the relation between Amtex shares anreturns on cru oil.Vasileva notes the following assumptions of regression analysis:■ Assumption 1. The error term is uncorrelateacross observations.■ Assumption 2. The varianof the error term is the same for all observations.■ Assumption 3. The pennt variable is normally stributeVasileva runs a regression of Amtex share returns on cru oil returns using the monthly ta she collecte Selecteta usein the regression are presentein Exhibit 1, anselecteregression output is presentein Exhibit 2. She uses a 1 percent level of significanin all her tests.Critict-values for a 1 percent level of significance:One-si left si: −2.441One-si right si: +2.441Two-si ±2.728Vasileva expects the cru oil return next month, Month 37, to −0.01. She computes the stanrerror of the forecast to 0.0469. Using information from Exhibit 2, the 99 percent prection intervfor Amtex share return for Month 37 is best scribeas: A.Yˆ f ± 0.0053. B.Yˆ f ± 0.0469. C.Yˆ f ± 0.1279. C is correct. The precteshare return is 0.0095 + [0.2354 × (−0.01)] = 0.0071.The lower limit for the prection intervis 0.0071 − (2.728 × 0.0469) = −0.1208, anthe upper limit for the prection intervis 0.0071 + (2.728 × 0.0469) =0.1350.A is incorrebecause the boun of the intervshoulbaseon the stanrerror of the forecast anthe critict-value, not on the meof the pennt variable.B is incorrebecause boun of the intervare baseon the proof the stanrerror of the forecast anthe critict-value, not simply the stanrerror of the forecast. 本题的完整解题思路

2024-10-22 21:07 1 · 回答