分母的25是怎么来的

问题如下：

Which statement will Stuyvesant most likely make to the committee regarding expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting? There is a(n):

选项：

A.

84% probability of a 25 bp cut in the federal funds rate at the next meeting.

B.

84% probability of a 25 bp hike in the federal funds rate at the next meeting.

C.

100% probability of a 21 bp cut in the federal funds rate at the next meeting.

解释：

中文解析：

本题考察的是使用fed funds futures来推断市场预期。

本题考察的公式为：

升息或者降息的概率=

其中federal funds rate implied by futures=100-98.33=1.67%;current federal funds rate = 1.88%；因此可以看到市场是预测美联储将会降息的，B选项不对；这里注意不论降息还是升息，幅度都是25bp。

根据公式可以计算概率为：1.67%-1.88%/25bp=84%.