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xgxinw · 2025年02月11日

cme

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NO.PZ202405210200000404

问题如下:

Based on the Taylor rule, if the central bank targets a 5.25% nominal policy rate, what is the mostly likely near-term outcome for the US economy?

选项:

A.Lower inflation and higher real growth B.Stable inflation and stable real growth C.Higher inflation and lower real growth

解释:

According to the Taylor rule, the expected nominal policy rate target of 5.25% is too low. If the central bank does not raise rates to the 7.75% implied by the Taylor rule, the economy would likely grow too fast and this could cause a significant tightening in the output gap of the economy. This environment is unsustainable and will likely lead to higher inflation and weaker real growth.

i = rneutral + πe + 0.5(𝑌e 𝑌trend) + 0.5(πe – πtarget)

Where:

i = target nominal policy rate

rneutral = real policy rate that would be targeted if growth is expected to be at trend and inflation on target

πe, πtarget = the expected and target inflation rates

𝑌e, 𝑌trend = the expected and trend real GDP growth rates

Using the information provided, the target nominal policy rate is

i = 2.50% + 3.5% + 0.5(5.0% – 3.0%) + 0.5(3.5% – 2.0%)

i = 7.75%

问一个结论,

inf上涨会导致lower econ real growth-------是一个可以死记的结论吗

0 个答案