NO.PZ2023061903000005
问题如下:
Q. Which one of the following trends in various economic indicators is most consistent with a recovery from a recession?选项:
A.A declining inventory–sales ratio and stable industrial production index B.A rising broad stock market index and unit labor costs turning from increasing to decreasing C.A decrease in average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance and an increase in aggregate real personal income解释:
C is correct. The improving leading indicator, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, and the improving coincident indicator, aggregate real personal income, are most consistent with an economic recovery. Even though a declining inventory-to-sales ratio, a lagging indicator, is consistent with an early recovery, the coincident indicator, the stable industrial production index, does not support that conclusion. Although a rising stock market index can signal economic expansion, the lagging indicator, the unit labor costs, has peaked, which is more consistent with a recession.
C正确。领先指标“”每周平均首次申请失业保险人数”的改善,以及同步指标“实际个人总收入”改善,与经济复苏最为一致。尽管“库存与销售之比"这个滞后指标的下降与经济的早期复苏是一致的,但与之同步的工业生产稳定指数并不支持这一结论。尽管股市指数上升可以表明经济扩张,但滞后指标“单位劳动力成本”已经见顶,这更符合经济衰退的迹象。
怎么理解stable industrial production index