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周周 · 2025年01月15日

B的高turnover ratio也是比较激进的吧?

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NO.PZ202301280200000201

问题如下:

Which portfolio manager is most likely exhibiting illusion of control bias?

选项:

A.

Manager 1

B.

Manager 2

C.

Manager 3

解释:

The illusion of control is the tendency to overestimate one’s ability to control events that may lead to more frequent trading, greater concentration of portfolio positions, or a greater willingness to employ tactical shifts in their asset allocation. As an institutional money manager, Manager 1 may believe he has better information about the return prospects for his investment selections than what is reflected in the market. While the other two managers may hold the same belief, Manager 1’s portfolio has the greatest concentration of portfolio positions relative to the other two managers. Manager 1 is also significantly overweight in equities versus the benchmark (75% versus 60%) compared to the other two managers. Manager 1 has an active share of 0.75, making his current allocation significantly different from the benchmark. Finally, the lower turnover ratio relative to the other managers may be an indication of Manager 1’s overconfidence in his investment decisions.

请解释一下turnover ratio代表的意思

1 个答案

Lucky_品职助教 · 2025年01月16日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你好:


其实我也觉的,有illusion of control bias 的投资者,并不一定就会交易的更频繁,这个答案解析有点片面。

 

Illusion of control bias 指的是投资者错误地认为自己能够控制或预测投资结果,尽管实际上他们的控制能力有限。

具有这种偏差的投资者turnover更低,主要有以下几个原因:

  1. 过度自信:这类投资者可能过于相信自己对投资的判断和控制能力,认为持有的股票会按照自己预期的方向发展,从而不愿意频繁买卖。比如,他们可能坚信某只股票因为自己深入的“研究”而一定会上涨,所以坚定持有,不轻易换手。
  2. 忽视风险:由于控制错觉,他们可能低估了投资中的不确定性和风险。这使得他们对市场的变化不够敏感,不会因为潜在的风险而迅速卖出股票,换手率也就相应降低。
  3. 缺乏灵活应变:认为自己能够掌控局面,导致他们在面对新的信息和市场变化时,不愿意及时调整投资组合,换股操作。例如,即使市场趋势明显不利,他们可能仍坚持原来的选择。

总之,控制错觉偏差使得投资者在投资决策中表现出过度的自信和固执,从而降低了股票的换手率。

这道题其实还有,前三个因素已经足够我们选出正确的答案了。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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