NO.PZ2022122601000008
问题如下：
At the investment committee meeting, the firm’s chief economist
predicts that the economy will enter the late expansion phase of the business
cycle in the next 12 months.
Discuss, based on the chief economist’s prediction, the implications for the following:
i. Bond yields
ii. Equity returns
iii. Short-term interest rates
选项：
解释：
中文解析：
债券收益率
在商业周期的后期扩张阶段，债券收益率通常会上升，但上升速度比短期利率要慢，因此收益率曲线趋于平缓。私人部门借贷给利率带来上行压力，而财政平衡通常会改善。
股本回报率
在商业周期的扩张后期，股市通常会上涨，但由于投资者对限制性货币政策和经济放缓的迹象感到紧张，股市也会出现高度波动。周期性资产可能表现不佳，而通胀对冲(如大宗商品)则表现优异。
短期利率
在商业周期的后期扩张阶段，短期利率通常会上升，因为经济过热的危险越来越大，货币政策变得限制性。中国央行的目标可能是实现软着陆。
老师, 这一题这样回答可以吗
i. Bond yields: Because short term interest rate is relatively high, and long term rate is also high, so the yield curve is flatten.
ii. Equity returns: Equity returns may rise with large volatility.
iii. Short-term interest rates: because monetary policy is strictive, so short term interest rate is relatively high.
