NO.PZ2022122601000074
问题如下：
Which statement made during the investment committee meeting is least likely to be correct?
Statement 1: One approach to economic modeling is to use the checklist approach. It is quite simple, as well as flexible, since one can include a wide array of economic data. However, it is time consuming due to the need to continually monitor the data already being used, as well as to consider other data that could be included. Also, it is inherently subjective as it relies on the analyst’s opinion of what economic data should be included.
Statement 2: Another approach is to use statistics to model relationships among types of economic data. By understanding the past relationship between consumer spending, housing income, and interest rates, an analyst can forecast future economic growth rates based on their belief of where certain economic variables will be in the coming years. These models are robust and tend to forecast turning points in an economy well.
Statement 3: An approach that is commonly used and easy to understand is looking at leading economic indicators. These can be individual economic data items, such as the unemployment rate, or a combination of items to create a composite index. While this approach is helpful, the data used are subject to frequent revisions, which impact the reliability of interpreting the data in real time.
选项：
A.Statement 1 B.Statement 2 C. Statement 3解释：
The approach described in Statement 2 is the use of econometric models. Econometric models rarely forecast turning points well. Relationships among variables fluctuate over time because of changes in economic structure and/or because the model may have been based on faulty assumptions as to how the world works, which can lead to a misspecified model.
Statements 1 and 3 are correct.
statement3为啥是对的？
失业率是滞后指标吧，不是先行指标啊
