CME

问题如下：

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist who develops capital market expectations for an investment firm that invests across asset classes and global markets. Wakuluk started her career when the global markets were experiencing significant volatility and poor returns; as a result, she is now careful to base her conclusions on objective evidence and analytical procedures to mitigate any potential biases.
Wakuluk’s approach to economic forecasting utilizes a structural model in conjunction with a diffusion index to determine the current phase of a country’s business cycle. This approach has produced successful predictions in the past, thus Wakuluk has high confidence in the predictions. Wakuluk also determines whether any adjustments need to be made to her initial estimates of the respective aggregate economic growth trends based on historical rates of growth for Countries X and Y (both developed markets) and Country Z (a developing market). Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk assumes short-term interest rates adjust with expected inflation and are procyclical. Wakuluk reviews the historical short-term interest rate trends for each country, which further confirms her predictions shown in Exhibit 1.
Wakuluk decides to focus on Country Y to determine the path of nominal interest rates, the potential economic response of Country Y’s economy to this path, and the timing for when Country Y’s economy may move into the next business cycle. Wakuluk makes the following observations:

Observation 1 Monetary policy has been persistently loose for Country Y, while fiscal policies have been persistently tight.
Observation 2 Country Y is expected to significantly increase transfer payments and introduce a more progressive tax regime.
Observation 3 The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase, with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions.

Wakuluk is most likely to make signifcant adjustments to her estimate of the future growth trend for which of the following countries?

选项：

Country Y only

Country Z only

Countries Y and Z

解释：

B is correct. Country Z is a developing market. Less-developed markets are likely to be undergoing more rapid structural changes, which may require the analyst to make more signifcant adjustments relative to past trends.

解析：本题中提到Z国是一个发展中市场。欠发达市场可能会经历更迅速的结构性变化，这就要求分析师相对于过去的趋势做出更重大的调整。所以本题只有B是正确。