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灰飞翔的猫 · 2025年01月07日

AC

NO.PZ2024011002000166

问题如下:

Gertrude Fromm is a transportation sector analyst at Tucana Investments. She is conducting an analysis of Omikroon, N.V., a (hypothetical) European engineering company that manufactures and sells scooters and commercial trucks.To validate the forecast for rapid growth in the electronic scooter market over the next 10 years, Fromm speaks to the management of Omikroon and investor relations of ZeroWheel, a competitor. Fromm might be subject to which behavioral bias?

选项:

A.Examine base rates. B.Overconfidence. C.Confirmation.

解释:

C is correct. The management of Omikroom and investor relations of ZeroWheel are almost certainly biased in favor of expecting strong growth for the markets they participate in. To evaluate the forecast, Fromm should seek more independent sources and balance the biased sources with sources biased in the opposite direction or an analyst who is more skeptical.

能否解释下AC选项?

1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2025年01月07日

同学你好,A选项请看以下讲义截图

base rate neglect是忽视基数概率的含义,也就是说,过于相信小概率事件。

忽视基数概率 (base-rate neglect) 是指在投资决策时,并未充分考虑到基数发生的概率。

举例来说,一家公司每年都呈现高成长的概率是很低的,可能4000只股票里最多只有40只可以保持每年的高成长,这个概率甚至不足1%。

但是投资者往往会过于乐观,相信他们手里的股票,EPS会永远的成长下去,从而赋予了过高的估值,而忽视了真正实现的概率不足1%。这就是(base-rate neglect)

题干通篇没有提及公司的高速发展概率的高低,而是在强调和竞争对手的对话,所以和A选项无关

C选项就是本题的考点,其最大的特点就是分析师只咨询竞争对手关于行业的信息(竞争对手同样可能存在对行业过度乐观的看法),请看讲义截图黄色部分,也就是本题题干说到的“Fromm speaks to the management of Omikroon and investor relations of ZeroWheel, a competitor.”的意思了



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