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Nicole Xiang · 2025年01月02日

你好，请问

  1. CFA I
  2. Equity

NO.PZ2023040301000149

问题如下：

An investor gathers the following data to estimate the intrinsic value of a company’s stock using the justified forward P/E approach.

The intrinsic value per share is closest to:

选项：

A.

$36

B.

$48

C.

$72

解释：

Dividend growth rate = (1 - Payout ratio) × ROE = 0.4 ×12.5 = 5%;

Justified forward P/E: P0 / E1 = payout ratio/ (r — g) = 0.60 / (0.10 — 0.05) = 12;

intrinsic value:P0 = P/E1 × E1 = 12 × $3 = $36

我发现这道题目：用justified forward P/E ratio(p=36) 和 用DDM（ p=60)方法算出来的P0 不一样。


主要原因就是D1/E1这个expected payout ratio 不一样。跟我之前提出的疑问一样，这是为什么呢？ 

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1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2025年01月02日

同学你好，你也可以参考上一个问题的答案，你这里没有注意时间点的匹配问题

注意问题表格第一行写的是next year expected earnings,也就是这里的3本来就是1时刻的EPS1而不是EPS0

所以如果用DDM计算本题，g=ROE*b = 12.5%*0.4 =5%

P0 = D1/(r-g) = 3*60% / (10%-5%) =36 ——和解析计算的36是完全一样的哦

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