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Alex · 2024年12月20日

Risks in immunization

NO.PZ2018120301000038

问题如下:

After selecting a portfolio to immunize Schuylkill’s multiple future outflows, Chaopraya prepares a report on how this immunization strategy would respond to various interest rate scenarios. The scenario analysis is presented in Exhibit 3.


Discuss the effectiveness of Chaopraya’s immunization strategy in terms of duration gaps.

选项:

解释:

Correct Answer:

Chaopraya’s strategy immunizes well for parallel shifts, with little deviation between the outflow portfolio and the immunizing portfolio in market value and BPV. Because the money durations are closely matched, the differences between the outflow portfolio and the immunizing portfolio in market value are small and the duration gaps (as shown by the difference in Δ Portfolio BPVs) between the outflow portfolio and the immunizing portfolio are small for both the upward and downward parallel shifts.

Chaopraya’s strategy does not immunize well for the non-parallel steepening and flattening twists (i.e., structural risks) shown in Exhibit 3. In those cases, the outflow portfolio and the immunizing portfolio market values deviate substantially and the duration gaps between the outflow portfolio and the immunizing portfolio are large.

老师,请问考试这个考点会有这种题型考法嘛?

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2024年12月21日

有一定概率考,但是不属于主流的写作题考点。这块duration-matching的构建(选最优组合匹配,并解释)属于基本一定会考的。其他配套的内容可能会有一定概率考。


这道题是已经构建好了duration-matching的策略,然后让检验是否有效。


如果利率变动时,资产的value与负债的value改变一致,如资产value上升10,负债的value也上升10,这就是变动同步,这时候duration-matching是有效的。

如果他们的value变动大小不一样,差距很大,则duration-matching无效。


所以这道题只需看表格最后一列difference的数据。他是算了资产与负债的变动额差值。

如,利率平行上升和平行下降时,资产与负债的value都变动差不多有6000多,他们的value变动差距只有18和4,这说明两者的变动差异极小,基本上两者的value变动是差不多大的。

所以duration-matching效果比较好。



反而如下图,steepening twist和flattening twist时,资产与负债的value变动差异极大。这说明duration-matching的效果比较差。




所以这道题针对平行移动和非平行移动回答资产与负债的表现差异即可,需回复下面句子:

Chaopraya’s strategy immunizes well for parallel shifts, with little deviation between the outflow portfolio and the immunizing portfolio in market value and BPV. 

But the strategy does not immunize well for the non-parallel steepening and flattening twists, because the outflow portfolio and the immunizing portfolio market values and BPV deviate substantially.

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