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Anna · 2024年11月18日

downstream

NO.PZ2023040402000032

问题如下:

The second company is Saturn Corp., a publicly traded US energy company. Chang has been asked to assess the valuation of a potential spin off for this company. Saturn operates and reports three segments: Upstream, Midstream, and Downstream. In the last 12 months, the company reported the financial results shown in Exhibit 1.


Saturn is currently trading at an enterprise value of USD408,000 million, or an EV/EBITDA multiple of 17. A spin off of the Downstream segment has long been rumored because it has been under-invested in by the current management team, resulting in slower revenue growth than its peers. Chang finds that the median Upstream, Midstream, and Downstream peers are trading at enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiples of 19, 17, and 13, respectively.

Based on Exhibit 1 and the peer median EV/EBITDA multiples, Saturn’s estimated enterprise value is closest to:

选项:

A.

USD392,000 million.

B.

USD408,000 million.

C.

USD421,440 million.

解释:

C is correct. USD421,440 million is calculated as follows:

Upstream: USD14,400 × 19 = USD273,600.

Midstream: USD5,760 × 17 = USD97,920.

Downstream: USD3,840 × 13 = USD49,920.

Consolidated: USD421,440 million

A is incorrect because USD392,000 million is incorrectly calculated by using the average of the peer segment multiples [(19 + 17 + 13)/3 = 16.33] to estimate the consolidated enterprise value.

Upstream: USD14,400 × 16.33 = USD234,720.

Midstream: USD5,760 × 16.33 = USD93.888.

Downstream: USD3,840 × 16.33 = USD62,592.

Consolidated: USD392,000 million

B is incorrect because USD408,000 million is Saturn’s current enterprise value, not the estimated enterprise value based on median peer multiples for all three segments.

既然downstream被undervalued,那么乘数13应该是被低估的,这里为什么不upward adjust downstream multiple呢?

1 个答案

Kiko_品职助教 · 2024年11月19日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


在这个应用场景中,只有一种算法,那就是正确答案的算法,因为最重要的原则是:「匹配」

不同板块的业务模式、经营风险可以认为是不同的,所以应该乘以各自板块同业倍数的中位数

就是不同板块的 EBITDA,乘以各自板块同业倍数的中位数即可


或者换一个例子

比如我们现在有 4 个人,参加 4 x 100 接力比赛

这四个人的水平,分别是:奥运会级别、亚运会级别、全运会级别、业余级别

我们现在要预估,这 4 个人的比赛用时

并且知道,这四个级别的其他选手,参加 100 米比赛的用时中位数,那么我们怎么预估总用时呢?

应该用「匹配」原则

奥运会级别的选手用时,你就用其他奥运会级别选手的用时中位数,比如 9.9 秒

亚运会级别的选手用时,你就用其他亚运会级别选手的用时中位数,比如 10.2 秒

以此类推,然后把这四个用时加起来,就是预估的总用时。

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NO.PZ2023040402000032 问题如下 The seconcompany is Saturn Corp., a publicly traUS energy company. Chang hbeen asketo assess the valuation of a potentispin off for this company. Saturn operates anreports three segments: Upstream, Mitream, anwnstream. In the last 12 months, the company reportethe financiresults shown in Exhibit 1.Saturn is currently trang enterprise value of US08,000 million, or EV/EBIT multiple of 17. A spin off of the wnstresegment hlong been rumorebecause it hbeen unr-investein the current management team, resulting in slower revenue growth thits peers. Chang fin ththe meUpstream, Mitream, anwnstrepeers are trang enterprise value-to-EBIT multiples of 19, 17, an13, respectively.Baseon Exhibit 1 anthe peer meEV/EBIT multiples, Saturn’s estimateenterprise value is closest to: A.US92,000 million. B.US08,000 million. C.US21,440 million. C is correct. US21,440 million is calculatefollows:Upstream: US4,400 × 19 = US73,600.Mitream: US,760 × 17 = US7,920.wnstream: US,840 × 13 = US9,920.Consolite US21,440 millionA is incorrebecause US92,000 million is incorrectly calculateusing the average of the peer segment multiples [(19 + 17 + 13)/3 = 16.33] to estimate the consoliteenterprise value.Upstream: US4,400 × 16.33 = US34,720.Mitream: US,760 × 16.33 = US3.888.wnstream: US,840 × 16.33 = US2,592.Consolite US92,000 millionB is incorrebecause US08,000 million is Saturn’s current enterprise value, not the estimateenterprise value baseon mepeer multiples for all three segments. 问题里“ the peer meEV/EBIT multiples” 怎么理解? 这句话和 “ the average of the peer segment multiples\" 怎么区分呢?

2023-08-13 21:55 1 · 回答