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Anna · 2024年11月15日

没有太理解答案的解释

NO.PZ2023040501000133

问题如下:

Ioana Matei directs research analyst Teresa Pereira to investigate the earnings quality of Miland Communications and Globales, Inc. Pereira compares Globales, Inc.’s financial statements with those of an industry competitor. Both firms have similar, above-average returns on equity (ROE), although Globales has a higher cash flow component of earnings. Pereira applies the mean reversion principle in her forecasts of the two firms’ future ROE.

Pereira should forecast that the ROE for Globales is likely to decline:

选项:

A.

more slowly than that of the industry competitor.

B.

at the same rate as the industry competitor.

C.

more rapidly than that of the industry competitor.

解释:

Based on the principle of mean reversion, the high ROE for both firms should revert towards the mean. Globales has a higher cash flow component to its return than the peer firm, however, so its high return on common equity should persist longer than that of the peer firm. The peer firm has a higher accruals component, so it is likely to revert more quickly.

为什么higher cash component就会使得ROE更resist的长一些呢?

1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年11月15日

同学你好,从指标计算的角度看,ROE=NI/Equity,分子分母都是权责发生制的结果,看起来好像和现金没有直接关系

但本题的角度其实是NI本身的可持续性——只有NI越具有可持续性,那ROE才会更长期的保持在一个高的水平上

NI的可持续性,就和NI中现金性收款的占比有关系了——如果现金性收款更多,那说明这个公司的收入不是靠虚增应收账款等方式得到的,而是真正的实际的销售获得的;反之现金收款低,公司可能存在短期为了冲业绩虚增收入的情况, 那NI有一天一定会大幅下降

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