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梦梦 · 2024年11月12日

credit spread为什么与rf负相关

NO.PZ2023091701000167

问题如下:

A quantitative analyst is preparing a performance report of a corporate bond portfolio. For the previous 1-year period, the analyst finds that the return on the portfolio was 4.4% and decomposes this return as follows:

  • Return attributable to the risk-free interest rate: 3.4%
  • Return attributable to the credit spread: 2.0%
  • Loss rate over the period: 1.0%
When observing the portfolio’s returns over a 3-year period, the analyst notes that the difference between the portfolio’s return attributable to the credit spread and its loss rate remained positive and varied from 0.7% to 1.3% each year. Which of the following would the analyst be correct to identify as the most likely explanation for the persistent positive difference between the credit spread and the loss rate?

选项:

A.Bond investors are being compensated for their exposure to systematic risk.

B.Credit spreads are specifically set by market makers to be greater than loss rates.

C.Corporate bonds have more liquidity than risk-free sovereign debt.

D.Credit spreads tend to be negatively correlated with interest rates.

解释:

A is correct. The main reason that the return on corporate bonds tends to be persistently greater than the risk-free interest rate (which would be the case if the return attributable to credit spread was exactly offset by the loss rate) is that the default risk in bonds cannot be fully diversified away and therefore the portfolio is exposed to systematic risk that must be compensated for.

In other words, investors are compensated for the additional risk that a wave of defaults might occur all at once, although this does not happen during normal market conditions (and did not happen in the three-year period observed by the analyst). If defaults were truly independent one would expect the gap between credit spreads and loss rates to be much smaller.

B is incorrect. Credit spreads are determined by the market and fluctuate based on market perceptions. They can be higher or lower than loss rates, and often converge towards loss rates during times of crisis.

C is incorrect. Corporate bonds have less liquidity than risk-free sovereign debt, and the lower liquidity might be a contributing factor to the higher returns.

D is incorrect. This does not explain the relationship between returns and the loss rate.

老师,D信用利差与利率(确切来说应该是Treasury bond yield)是负相关的。是为什么啊?

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pzqa39 · 2024年11月13日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


如果经济差,极端情况下会出现fly to quality,将资金转向低风险的、被认为更安全的资产,不是国债没人买而是大家都转向国债,这样rf会进一步下降的

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pzqa39 · 2024年11月12日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


从定义的角度,Credit spread指的是信用溢价,具体来说是公司债券或其他风险较高的债券相对于无风险债券(如国债)的收益率差,所以从定义上就是负相关的关系

从理解的角度,经济扩张时,由于经济增长强劲,公司的财务状况往往较好,违约风险较低。因此,信用利差往往较小。此时,无风险利率上升,通常反映了经济健康的表现。经济衰退时,中央银行通常会降低利率以刺激经济,虽然利率低,但因为企业违约的风险上升,信用利差会扩大

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

梦梦 · 2024年11月12日

但是极端情况国债也没人买,是不是rf就会提高啊

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