求问为啥低经济增长？谢谢

问题如下：

Based on the Taylor rule, if the central bank targets a 5.25% nominal policy rate, what is the mostly likely near-term outcome for the US economy?

选项：

A.Lower inflation and higher real growth B.Stable inflation and stable real growth C.Higher inflation and lower real growth

解释：

According to the Taylor rule, the expected nominal policy rate target of 5.25% is too low. If the central bank does not raise rates to the 7.75% implied by the Taylor rule, the economy would likely grow too fast and this could cause a significant tightening in the output gap of the economy. This environment is unsustainable and will likely lead to higher inflation and weaker real growth.

i = r_neutral + π_e + 0.5(𝑌_e – 𝑌_trend) + 0.5(π_e – π_target)

Where:

i = target nominal policy rate

r_neutral = real policy rate that would be targeted if growth is expected to be at trend and inflation on target

π_e, π_target = the expected and target inflation rates

𝑌_e, 𝑌_trend = the expected and trend real GDP growth rates

Using the information provided, the target nominal policy rate is

i = 2.50% + 3.5% + 0.5(5.0% – 3.0%) + 0.5(3.5% – 2.0%)

i = 7.75%