Lloyd Redfield, a portfolio manager on the foreign bond team, asks Simmons to review the current business cycle and yield curve in Australia. The Australian economy entered a recession approximately 6 months ago, and the Australian Central Bank has been reducing its policy rate. Simmons expects the Australian economy to gradually improve over the next 6–12 months and the government bond curve to change from its currently flat state to an upward sloping state. Simmons believes the future upward slope of the yield curve will be influenced by investor expectations for declining policy rates, increasing inflation premiums for longer dated bonds, and bond risk premiums that are negatively related to consumption hedging benefits.
Which one of Simmons’ factors is most likely accurate with regard to investors influencing the future shape of the yield curve?
- Inflation premiums
- Bond risk premiums
- Policy rate expectations
烦请老师详细讲解一下选项2 和 3 为何不构成upward shape？特别是bond这个无法对冲消费风险这一点，怎么挂钩到shape上？谢谢。
