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wukefu · 2024年10月31日

share one yield curve = do not have independent monetary policy

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NO.PZ202105270100000303

问题如下:

Currently, Eastland’s currency is fixed relative to the currency of the country of Northland, and Eastland maintains policies that allow unrestricted capital flows. Hadpret examines the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates. He considers three possible scenarios for the Eastland economy:

  • Scenario 1 Shift in policy restricting capital flows
  • Scenario 2 Shift in policy allowing the currency to float
  • Scenario 3 Shift in investor belief toward a lack of full credibility that the exchange rate will be fixed forever

Discuss how interest rate and exchange rate linkages between Eastland and Northland might change under each scenario.

Note: Consider each scenario independently.

选项:

A.
B.
C.

解释:

Scenario 1

Eastland currently has a fixed exchange rate with unrestricted capital flows. It is unable to pursue an independent monetary policy, and interest rates will be equal to those in Northland. By restricting capital flows along with a fixed exchange rate, Eastland will be able to run an independent monetary policy with the central bank setting the policy rate. Thus, interest rates can be different in the two countries

Scenario 2

Eastland currently has a fixed exchange rate pegged to Northland with unrestricted capital flows. Eastland is unable to pursue an independent monetary policy with interest rates in Eastland equal to the interest rates prevailing in Northland (the country to which the currency is pegged). If Eastland allows the exchange rate to float, it will now be able to run an independent monetary policy with interest rates determined in its domestic market. The link between interest rates and exchange rates will now be largely expectational and will depend on the expected future path of the exchange rate. To equalize risk-adjusted returns across countries, interest rates must generally be higher (lower) in the country whose currency is expected to depreciate (appreciate). This dynamic often leads to a situation where the currency overshoots in one direction or the other.

Scenario 3

Eastland and Northland (with currencies pegged to each other) will share the same yield curve if two conditions are met. First, unrestricted capital mobility must occur between them to ensure that risk-adjusted expected returns will be equalized. Second, the exchange rate between the currencies must be credibly fixed forever. Thus, as long as investors believe that there is no risk in the future of a possible currency appreciation or depreciation, Eastland and Northland will share the same yield curve. A shift in investors’ belief in the credibility of the fixed exchange rate will likely cause risk and yield differentials to emerge. This situation will cause the (default-free) yield curve to differ between Eastland and Northland.

场景1
Eastland目前实行固定汇率,资本流动不受限制。它无法实行独立的货币政策,利率将与Northland持平。通过限制资本流动和固定汇率,Eastland将能够实行独立的货币政策,由中央银行制定政策利率。因此,两国的利率可能不同。



场景2
Eastland目前与Northland实行固定汇率,资本流动不受限制。Eastland无法实行独立的货币政策,使Eastland的利率与Northland(货币与之挂钩的国家)的利率相等。如果Eastland允许汇率浮动,它现在将能够实行独立的货币政策,利率由其国内市场决定。目前,利率和汇率之间的联系在很大程度上将取决于预期的汇率未来走势。为了使各国经风险调整后的收益相等,在预期货币将贬值(升值)的国家,利率通常必须较高(较低)。这种动态往往会导致货币在某个方向上过度升值。



场景3
如果满足两个条件,Eastland和Northland(货币相互挂钩)将共享相同的收益率曲线。首先,必须在它们之间实现不受限制的资本流动,以确保经风险调整后的预期回报率达到均衡。第二,两种货币之间的汇率必须可靠地永远固定下来。因此,只要投资者认为未来不存在货币升值或贬值的风险,Eastland和Northland的收益率曲线将是相同的。投资者对固定汇率可信度的信念转变,可能会导致风险和收益差异的出现。这种情况将导致Eastland和Northland的(无违约)收益率曲线存在差异。因此,Hadpret所预测的庞大政府预算赤字不太可能对收益率曲线产生太大的持久影响,尤其是考虑到在紧缩期间私营部门借款将下降,在一定程度上抵消了政府债券供应的增加


想问一下,本题的考察点是不是基于三元悖论。在这个理论中 share one yield curve = do not have independent monetary policy 这么理解对吗?

2 个答案
已采纳答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年11月02日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


所以,如果A 和B share one yield curve 就相当于A或 B do not have independent monetary policy ,这么理解对吗

这么理解正确。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年11月01日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


想问一下,本题的考察点是不是基于三元悖论。在这个理论中 share one yield curve = do not have independent monetary policy 这么理解对吗?

Hello,亲爱的同学~

可以从三元悖论的角度来理解。

share one yield curve,需要资本自由流动,并且固定汇率。

在资本自由流动,并且固定汇率的前提下,根据三元悖论,只能放弃独立货币政策。

----------------------------------------------
加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

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NO.PZ202105270100000303 问题如下 Currently, Eastlans currenis fixerelative to the currenof the country of Northlan anEastlanmaintains policies thallow unrestrictecapitflows. Haret examines the relationship between interest rates anexchange rates. He consirs three possible scenarios for the Eastlaneconomy:Scenario 1 Shift in polirestricting capitflowsScenario 2 Shift in poliallowing the currento floatScenario 3 Shift in investor belief towara laof full crebility ththe exchange rate will fixeforeverscuss how interest rate anexchange rate linkages between EastlananNorthlanmight change unr eascenario.Note: Consir eascenario inpenntly.Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Eastlancurrently ha fixeexchange rate with unrestrictecapitflows. It is unable to pursue inpennt monetary policy, aninterest rates will equto those in Northlan restricting capitflows along with a fixeexchange rate, Eastlanwill able to run inpennt monetary poliwith the centrbank setting the polirate. Thus, interest rates cfferent in the two countriesScenario 2 Eastlancurrently ha fixeexchange rate peggeto Northlanwith unrestrictecapitflows. Eastlanis unable to pursue inpennt monetary poliwith interest rates in Eastlanequto the interest rates prevailing in Northlan(the country to whithe currenis pegge. If Eastlanallows the exchange rate to float, it will now able to run inpennt monetary poliwith interest rates terminein its mestic market. The link between interest rates anexchange rates will now largely expectationanwill penon the expectefuture path of the exchange rate. To equalize risk-austereturns across countries, interest rates must generally higher (lower) in the country whose currenis expecteto preciate (appreciate). This namic often lea to a situation where the currenovershoots in one rection or the other.Scenario 3 EastlananNorthlan(with currencies peggeto eaother) will share the same yielcurve if two contions are met. First, unrestrictecapitmobility must occur between them to ensure thrisk-austeexpectereturns will equalize Secon the exchange rate between the currencies must crebly fixeforever. Thus, long investors believe ththere is no risk in the future of a possible currenappreciation or preciation, EastlananNorthlanwill share the same yielcurve. A shift in investors’ belief in the crebility of the fixeexchange rate will likely cause risk anyielfferentials to emerge. This situation will cause the (fault-free) yielcurve to ffer between EastlananNorthlan场景1Eastlan前实行固定汇率,资本流动不受限制。它无法实行独立的货币政策,利率将与Northlan平。通过限制资本流动和固定汇率,Eastlan能够实行独立的货币政策,由中央银行制定政策利率。因此,两国的利率可能不同。场景2Eastlan前与Northlan行固定汇率,资本流动不受限制。Eastlan法实行独立的货币政策,使Eastlan利率与Northlan货币与之挂钩的国家)的利率相等。如果Eastlan许汇率浮动,它现在将能够实行独立的货币政策,利率由其国内市场决定。目前,利率和汇率之间的联系在很大程度上将取决于预期的汇率未来走势。为了使各国经风险调整后的收益相等,在预期货币将贬值(升值)的国家,利率通常必须较高(较低)。这种动态往往会导致货币在某个方向上过度升值。场景3如果满足两个条件,EastlanNorthlan货币相互挂钩)将共享相同的收益率曲线。首先,必须在它们之间实现不受限制的资本流动,以确保经风险调整后的预期回报率达到均衡。第二,两种货币之间的汇率必须可靠地永远固定下来。因此,只要投资者认为未来不存在货币升值或贬值的风险,EastlanNorthlan收益率曲线将是相同的。投资者对固定汇率可信度的信念转变,可能会导致风险和收益差异的出现。这种情况将导致EastlanNorthlan(无违约)收益率曲线存在差异。因此,Haret所预测的庞大政府预算赤字不太可能对收益率曲线产生太大的持久影响,尤其是考虑到在紧缩期间私营部门借款将下降,在一定程度上抵消了政府债券供应的增加 考试会考这么难的题吗

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