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wukefu · 2024年10月29日

名义还是实际的GDP

  1. CFA III
  2. Capital Market Expectations

NO.PZ2020012201000007

问题如下：

Alena,CFA, was updating her firm’s projections for US equity returns.If she believed that in the long run that the US labor input would grow by 0.9% perannum and labor productivity by 1.5%, that inflation would be 2.1%, that the dividend yield would be 2.25%, and that there would be no further growth in P/E, what is likely to have been her baseline projection for continuously compounded long-term US equity returns?

选项：

A.

6.75%

B.

5.5%

C.

5.85%

解释：

A is correct

解释：

在长期，一国股票市场的CAPITAL APPRECIATION的增长率等于该国GDP的增长率(本题P/E增长率为0也证实了这一点)。那么本题CAPITAL APPRECIATION就等于计算该国GDP的增长率。此后再加上股息增长率就可以得到股权市场的增长率。

Her baseline projection is likely to have been 6.75% = 0.9% + 1.5% + 2.1% + 2.25%

依照公式可得：. 6.75% = 0.9% + 1.5% + 2.1% + 2.25%

“If she believed that in the long run that the US labor input would grow by 0.9% perannum and labor productivity by 1.5%, that inflation would be 2.1%, ”这句话虽然给了我们inflantion的条件，但是并没有说0.9%+1.5%算出来的就是实际GDP啊？在考试中我们要怎么判断？是不是如给了inflantion的数字，我们就要用上？

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源_品职助教 · 2024年10月29日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


同学是不是想说0.9%+1.5%算出来就是名义GDP

一般考试而言，如果给了inflantion，还是加上。

因为这道题也是协会官方的题目，所以他们的思路还是要加，算名义值。

通常说到宏观经济变量，没有特别提及，都是指实际值。而题目要求的往往又是名义值。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来，我们正在朝着它而去，加油！

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