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徐威廉 · 2024年10月28日

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NO.PZ2024042601000082

问题如下:

选项:

An underlying exposure with an effective annual price volatility of 6% is collateralized by a 10-year U.S. Treasury note with an effective price volatility of 8%. The correlation between the exposure and the U.S. Treasury note is zero. Changes in the value of the overall position (the exposure plus collateral) are calculated for a 10-day horizon at a 95% confidence interval. Which of the following would one expect to observe from this analysis?

A.

The presence of collateral increases the current exposure and increases the volatility of the exposure between remargining periods

B.

The presence of collateral decreases the current exposure, but increases the volatility of the exposure between remargining periods

C.

The presence of collateral increase the current exposure, but decreases the volatility of the exposure between remargining periods

D.

The presence of collateral decreases the current exposure and decreases the volatility of the exposure between remargining periods

解释:

Explanation: Worst case change for the value of the collateral is: -1.96*8%*(10/250)0.5 = -3.136%. The overall volatility of the position: (0.062 + 0.082)0.5 = 0.10 = 10%

Thus the worst case change in the value of this position (exposure + collateral) = -1.96*10%* (10/250)0.5 = -3.920%

Thus, the collateral mitigates the exposure today while increasing the volatility of the position in the future.

请老师解释一下

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pzqa27 · 2024年10月29日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


这个题目考察了抵押品在减少当前风险敞口的同时对整体头寸(敞口+抵押品)波动性的影响。

1. 计算整体头寸的波动率

因为敞口和抵押品之间的相关性为零,我们可以用它们的方差之和的平方根来计算整体头寸的波动率。

敞口和抵押品的波动率分别是6%和8%,因此整体头寸的年波动率可以通过以下公式计算:

2. 计算10天内整体头寸的最坏情境变化

在95%的置信区间下,假设价格变化服从正态分布,标准正态分布的95%分位数(即z值)为1.96。因此,整体头寸在10天内的最坏情况变化可以用以下公式表示:

3. 计算抵押品在10天内的最坏情境变化

类似地,抵押品的最坏情境变化可以单独计算:

从上述计算中可以得出以下结论:

  • 当前风险敞口减少:由于抵押品的存在,整体头寸的当前风险敞口降低,因为即便敞口价值下降,抵押品的价值也可以部分补偿这一损失。
  • 未来波动性增加:虽然抵押品可以降低当前的风险敞口,但由于它具有更高的波动性,加入抵押品实际上增加了整体头寸在未来的波动性。这是因为抵押品的波动性为8%,高于敞口的波动性6%,使得组合的总体波动性上升到了10%。


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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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