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徐威廉 · 2024年10月25日

D选项为什么不对

NO.PZ2023100703000018

问题如下:

A risk manager is analyzing the output of an age-weighted historical VaR model. After a long period of high volatility, the market has been very stable recently. The risk manager is concerned that the output may underestimate the risk in the market. The model would generate a higher risk estimate by:

选项:

A.Using a lower VaR confidence level B.Using volatility weighting in addition to age weighting. C.Using bootstrapping to calculate VaR. D.Using a smaller exponential rate of decay of the age weights.

解释:

Using bootstrapping will give more weight to periods of high volatility. Therefore, if there was a period of high volatility in the past, its importance will be emphasized more, potentially leading to a higher risk estimate.

D选项用Age weighted方法衰减降低,历史波动大的数据一样可以高估风险啊

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已采纳答案

pzqa39 · 2024年10月26日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学你好,这个题确实是有问题的,因为rate of decay应该是等于1-lamda,smaller rate of decay会让数据衰减得更慢,时间离得越久远的高波动率数据占的权重会更大,应该是会导致VaR更大的,C和D都正确。


因为之前讲义里面也有这道题目,所以我们对这道题进行了调整,D选项改成“Using a smaller lamda of the age weights”,这样相当于是早期波动率大的部分衰减的速度更快,这样就可以排除D选项了。

只不过经典题部分还没有调过来,我联系下教研老师进行调整,感谢同学的反馈。

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