NO.PZ2024042601000030
问题如下：
Suppose the hazard rate is constant and equal to 0.090. In this case, each of the following is true except which is false?
选项：
A.The unconditional one-year default probability is 8.6%
The unconditional two-year default probability is 16.5%
The probability of joint event of survival through the first year and default in the second year is 7.9%
The conditional one-year default probability, given survival through the first year, is 17.3%
解释：
The conditional one-year PD is equal to 8.6%, same as the unconditional one-year default probability.
第一年不违约且第二年违约的联合概率，不应该是解析里面的（1-8.6%）X8.6%
应该是仅在第二年不违约的概率/第一年survival rate
