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yanan · 2024年10月19日

为什么rf增加,equity价值增加呢

NO.PZ2024042601000014

问题如下:

Analyst Greg is employing the Merton model to both value a firm’s equity and estimate a physical default probability. He has collected the following information:

•The firm’s default threshold one year forward is $10 million; e.g., face value of short-term debt is $10 million.

•The firm current asset value is $12.75 million with an expected return of 8% per annum with continuous compounding

•The volatility of the firm’s assets is 9.6%

•The risk-free rate is 2%

His exercise includes two components: one, valuation of the firm’s equity market value by treating equity as a call option on the firm’s assets; two, estimate of default probability by calculation of a forward distance to default. Greg makes two assumptions:

I. An increase in the risk-free rate will increase an estimate of the firm’s current equity market value, and

II. An increase in the risk-free rate will decrease the estimated default probability.

Which of Greg’s two assumptions is correct?

选项:

A.

Neither

B.

I only

C.

II only

D.

Both

解释:

Just as an increase in the risk-free rate increases the value of a call option, an increase in the risk-free rate increases the equity value under Merton. However, the risk-free rate has no impact on the Merton PD; the physical drift of 8% is used in that application.

还请详细讲一下解析,我理解这两个选项都是不对的

1 个答案

pzqa27 · 2024年10月21日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


首先公司的equity根据Merton模型,可以看作是一个看涨期权。在Merton模型中,公司的股权(equity)被视为一个关于公司资产的看涨期权(call option)。根据期权定价理论,风险利率(rf)的上升会提高看涨期权的价值。直觉上,当无风险利率增加时,未来收益的折现价值会变小,这使得期权未来行权的潜在收益相对更大。因此,风险利率增加会提升股权的价值。



Merton模型中,计算违约概率使用的是公司资产的实际预期收益率,而不是风险中性利率。因此,虽然无风险利率会影响股权价值,但它不直接影响违约概率。在这种情况下,实际预期收益率是8%,与无风险利率无关,Greg的第二个假设是错误的。


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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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