如何理解题目和考点

问题如下：

An analyst developed two scenarios with respect to the recovery of USD100,000

principal from defaulted loans:

The amount of the expected recovery is closest to which of the following?

选项：

A.

USD36,400.

B.

USD55,000.

C.

USD63,600.

解释：

C is correct. If Scenario 1 occurs, the expected recovery is 60% (USD50,000)

+ 40% (USD30,000) = USD42,000, and if Scenario 2 occurs, the expected recovery

is 90% (USD80,000) + 10% (USD60,000) = USD78,000. Weighting by

the probability of each scenario, the expected recovery is 40% (USD42,000) +

60% (USD78,000) = USD63,600. Alternatively, first calculating the probability

of each amount occurring, the expected recovery is (40%)(60%)(USD50,000) +

(40%)(40%)(USD30,000) + (60%)(90%)(USD80,000) + (60%)(10%)(USD60,000) =

USD63,600.