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Tina · 2018年09月30日

问一道题:NO.PZ2017092702000100 [ CFA I ]

没有看懂答案的解释😢

问题如下图:

选项:

A.

B.

C.

解释:

1 个答案
已采纳答案

菲菲_品职助教 · 2018年10月02日

同学你好,选项A的意思就是,让你比较bond和stock哪个得到负回报的概率比较大。已知bond和stock的均值和标准差,因为这两个资产的return都是服从正态分布的,所以我们首先要把这个一般的正态分布标准化,方便我们求概率。因为我们要求两者产生负回报的概率,即求P(X<0).

由图可知,红色部分的面积代表Stock产生负回报的概率,绿色面积代表Bond产生负回报的概率,绿色面积大于红色面积,所以Bond相对于Stock来说产生负回报的概率更高,A选项的描述是正确的。

对于B选项,应该是95%的概率不是99%的概率,所以错误。

对于C选项,相当于求Bond的return小于等于3%的概率,即P(X≤3%),一样的道理,如下图所示:

所以应该是using a Z-score of 0.2,而不是0.25,C选项错误。

 

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NO.PZ2017092702000100 老师这题是不是因为已知了正态分布,所以不用标准化,得出来的概率就可以直接比较大小?

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