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C_M_ · 2024年09月25日

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NO.PZ2023100703000038

问题如下:

You are backtesting a bank’s VaR model. Currently, the bank calculates a 1-day VaR at the 99% confidence level, and you are recommending that is switch to a 95% confidence level. Which of the following statements concerning this switch is correct?

选项:

A.The 95% VaR model is less likely to be rejected using backtesting than the 99% VaR model.

B.When validating with backtesting at the 90% confidence level, there is a smaller probability of incorrectly rejecting a 95% VaR model when it is valid than a 99% VaR model.

C.The decision to accept or reject a VaR model based on backtesting results is more reliable with a 95% confidence level VaR model than with a 99% confidence level model.

D.When backtesting using a 90% confidence level, there is a smaller probability of committing a type I error when backtesting a 95% VaR model than with a 99% VaR model.

解释:

The concept tested here is the understanding of the difference between the VaR parameter for confidence (here, namely 95% vs 99%) and the validation procedure confidence level, and how they interact with one another. Using a VaR confidence level creates a narrower rejection region by allowing a greater number of exceptions to be generated. This in turn increases the power of the backtesting process and makes for a more reliable test.

可以解释一下c吗 为什么95%反而比99%reliable

1 个答案

pzqa39 · 2024年09月25日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


可靠度指的是针对VaR所做的历史回测过程的可靠度。


同等条件下,95%的var的接受域更窄,那么拒绝域更多,会有更多的exception作为对模型的考量。比如250个检测样本,对于99%VaR可能只有一两个损失超过了VaR,而对于95%的VaR却会有更多的超过VaR的数,所以这个backtesting过程会更可靠一些。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!