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一凡007 · 2024年09月23日

可否解释一下这道题?

NO.PZ2024030508000070

问题如下:

A risk manager at a US-based fixed-income fund expects a significant decrease in mortgage prepayments. The manager evaluates the impact of this forecast on different types of government and agency securities held in the portfolio and recommends selling the asset type with the greatest downside risk. Assuming all other factors are held constant, and the level of market interest rates is unchanged, which of the following positions should the manager recommend liquidating?

选项:

A. Interest-only securities (IOs)

B.Principal-only securities (POs)

C.Pass-through MBS

D.US Treasury bills

解释:

Explanation: B is correct. If the rate of prepayment decreases and interest rates remain constant, the payments in a PO get extended out over a longer period of time, so the present value of the POs decreases. As prepayments increase, a PO becomes more valuable because cash flows are received earlier than expected. By contrast, Ios become less valuable because fewer interest payments are made overall.

A is incorrect. IOs, in this scenario, would behave exactly the opposite to POs and would be expected to increase in value.

C is incorrect. The impact on pass-throughs will fall somewhere in-between that on IOs and POs and is harder to predict, so PO is still a better candidate to sell.

D is incorrect. US Treasury bills would not be expected to change value at all due to the mortgage prepayment changes.

Learning Objective: Explain the mechanics of different types of agency MBS products, including collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), interest-only securities (IOs), and principal-only securities (POs).

Reference: Global Association of Risk Professionals, Financial Markets and Products (New York, NY: Pearson, 2023). Chapter 18. Mortgages and Mortgage-Backed Securities

没有看明白答案的意思,老师

1 个答案

pzqa39 · 2024年09月23日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


这道题是说经理评估了这一预测对投资组合中持有的不同类型的政府和机构证券的影响,并建议出售风险最大的资产类型。在假设所有其他因素保持不变且市场利率不变的情况下,经理应建议清算以下哪个头寸

 

A选项:IOs 是仅支付利息的证券,意味着持有该证券的投资者只会收到贷款支付的利息部分。如果抵押贷款提前偿还,意味着贷款提前结束,那么持有者将失去未来的利息支付。因此,提前偿还率的上升会降低IOs的价值。

在这道题当中,预期提前偿还率下降,意味着贷款将持续更长的时间,持有者可以获得更多的利息支付,因此IOs的价值会上升。正因为这样,IOs在提前偿还率下降的情况下不会是推荐清算的证券,因为它的价值反而会增加。

 

B选项:POs 是仅支付本金的证券,持有者只会收到抵押贷款的本金部分。对于POs,提前偿还率的上升意味着贷款本金可以更快回收,因此其价值会提高。然而,提前偿还率的下降则意味着本金的回收时间被延长,现值降低。

预期提前偿还率下降,意味着本金回收的时间更长。由于现金流未来的延迟,POs 的现值会减少,这使得POs在这种情况下不具吸引力。因此,在预期提前偿还率下降的情况下,POs是推荐清算的证券,因为它的价值会下降。

 

C选项:Pass-through MBS是一种证券化产品,持有者会定期收到来自基础抵押贷款池的现金流(包括利息和本金)。它既包含利息部分也包含本金部分,因此其价值对提前偿还率的反应较为复杂。

提前偿还率的下降会影响到Pass-through MBS的现金流,但这种影响介于IOs和POs之间。由于它既包含利息又包含本金的成分,因此提前偿还率下降对其影响难以预测。整体来看,Pass-through MBS的价值不会像POs那样显著下降,因此相比POs,它不是最优的清算选择。

 

D选项:美国国库券是无风险的短期政府债券,通常不涉及利息支付,而是以折价购买、到期时按面值赎回。其价值与市场利率变化密切相关,但与抵押贷款的提前偿还率无关。

预期的抵押贷款提前偿还率下降不会对T-Bills的价值产生任何直接影响。因为国库券的现金流与抵押贷款没有关联,因此它的价值不会受到提前偿还率变化的影响。

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