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周梅 · 2024年09月18日

fixed bond

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NO.PZ202304100300003202

问题如下:

The value of the American-style put option on Beta Company shares is closest to:

选项:

A.

4.53.

B.

5.15.

C.

9.32.

解释:

Using the expectations approach, the risk-neutral probability of an up move is

π= [FV(1) - d]/(u - d) = (1.03 - 0.800)/(1.300 - 0.800) = 0.46.

An American-style put can be exercised early. At Time Step 1, for the up move, p+ is 0.2517 and the put is out of the money and should not be exercised early (X <S, 40 < 49.4). However, at Time Step 1, p-is 8.4350 and the put is in the money by 9.60 (X - S = 40 - 30.40). So, the put is exercised early, and the value of early exercise (9.60) replaces the value of not exercising early (8.4350) in the binomial tree. The value of the put at Time Step 0 is now

p = PV[πp+ + (1 - π)p-] = [1/(1.03)][0.46(0.2517) + 0.54(9.60)] = 5.1454.

Following is a supplementary note regarding Exhibit 1.

The values in Exhibit 1 are calculated as follows.

At Time Step 2:

p++ = Max(0,X - u2S) = Max[0,40 - 1.3002(38)] = Max(0,40 - 64.22) = 0.

p-+ = Max(0,X - udS) = Max[0,40 - 1.300(0.800)(38)] = Max(0,40 - 39.52) = 0.48.

p- - = Max(0,X - d2S) = Max[0,40 - 0.8002(38)] = Max(0,40 - 24.32)= 15.68.

At Time Step 1:

p+ = PV[πp++ + (1 - π)p-+] = [1/(1.03)][0.46(0) + 0.54(0.48)] = 0.2517.

p- = PV[πp-+ + (1 - π)p- -] = [1/(1.03)][0.46(0.48) + 0.54(15.68)]=8.4350.

since 8.4350 < 9.60 (X - S = 40 - 30.40), so p- = 9.60

At Time Step 0:

p = PV[πp+ + (1 - π)p-] = [1/(1.03)][0.46(0.2517) + 0.54(9.60)] = 5.1454.

pis 0.2517  是怎么计算出来的,老师详细讲解下解题步骤

1 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2024年09月18日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


题目让我们用two-period binomial model,也就是两阶段二叉树来计算这个美式看跌期权的价值。


一开始的二叉树起点是t=0, 而p+指的是t=1的时候,当股价上涨时对应的put option value。

p++指的是t=2的时候,股价连续上涨两次对应的put option value。股价涨两次之后,就变成64.22,大于执行价格40,所以p++是0.

p-+指的是t=2的时候,股价涨一次再跌一次对应的put option value。股价涨一次跌一次,就变成39.52,那么p-+是40-39.52 = 0.48.


p+ 是二叉树在t=1的时刻的上节点,用p++与p-+乘以各自发生的概率,求和,然后折现到t=1得出来的put option value。

站在t=1的时刻,p++就是从t=1开始股价上涨概率,而p-+就是股价下跌的概率。

p+ = (p++ * 股价上涨的概率 + p-+ * 股价下跌的概率 ) / (1+0.03) = [0 * 0.46 + 0.48 * 0.54]/1.03 =  0.2517.



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