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Frances · 2024年09月01日

为什么要比平均值

  1. CFA I
  2. Equity

NO.PZ2023040301000153

问题如下：

An analyst has prepared a table of the average trailing twelve-month price-to-earning (P/E), price-to-cash flow (P/CF), and price-to-sales (P/S) for the Tanaka Corporation for the years 2005 to 2008.

As of the date of the valuation in 2009, the trailing twelve-month P/E, P/CF, and P/S are, respectively, 9.2, 8.0, and 2.5. Based on the information provided, the analyst may reasonably conclude that Tanaka shares are most likely:


选项：

A.

overvalued.

B.

undervalued.

C.

fairly valued.

解释：

Tanaka shares are most likely overvalued. As the table below shows: all the 2009 multiples are currently above their 2005-2008 averages.

正常发展的公司算上每年的inflationPrice都是会稳步上升的，算平均值不是拉低了吗？

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1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年09月01日

同学你好，inflation不仅会导致公司的price上升，也会导致公司销售的产品价格提升从而NI也就是EPS提升啊

一个正常的公司，就是应该每年随着净利润提升，公司规模加大，equity 的book value变大，并且产生的现金流也变多，从而Price稳步提升，所以分子分母其实是同步在变大的，不存在只涨分子不涨分母的可能性哦

所以综合来看，公司的表现也是遵循均值回归原理的，即P/E，P/CF等乘数也应该有一个合理的范围而不是会无限变大或变小的——本题依据的就是均值回归原理，用历史平均值和现在的乘数比较就可以知道公司是高估还是低估了

同学有兴趣可以看看一些港美股炒股APP，一般都会给出公司各个乘数的历史平均值范围，然后再标识现在的乘数值，从而供投资者参考公司现在的定价是否合理的哦

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NO.PZ2023040301000153 问题如下 analyst hpreparea table of the average trailing twelve-month price-to-earning (P/E), price-to-cash flow (P/CF), anprice-to-sales (P/S) for the Tanaka Corporation for the years 2005 to 2008.of the te of the valuation in 2009, the trailing twelve-month P/E, P/CF, anP/S are, respectively, 9.2, 8.0, an2.5. Baseon the information provi the analyst mreasonably conclu thTanaka shares are most likely: overvalue B.unrvalue fairly value Tanaka shares are most likely overvalue the table below shows: all the 2009 multiples are currently above their 2005-2008 averages. 估值得到的数高于市场实际值（我理解此题通过历史平均得到），难道不是被低估么？

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