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不忘初心 · 2024年08月30日

unconditional PD 和cumulative PD

NO.PZ2024042601000030

问题如下:

Suppose the hazard rate is constant and equal to 0.090. In this case, each of the following is true except which is false?

选项:

A.

The unconditional one-year default probability is 8.6%

B.

The unconditional two-year default probability is 16.5%

C.

The probability of joint event of survival through the first year and default in the second year is 7.9%

D.

The conditional one-year default probability, given survival through the first year, is 17.3%

解释:

The conditional one-year PD is equal to 8.6%, same as the unconditional one-year default probability.

请问老师,选项B The unconditional two-year default probability is 16.5%,为什么是算cumulativePD呢?unconditional PD是两期survival rate相减,不是吗?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa27 · 2024年09月02日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


unconditional PD指的是不看之前的违约情况,只看目前的情况下,违约的概率是多少。那么对于前2年来说,看不看之前的情况没有什么区别,因为压根没有之前的情况,所以此时unconditional PD= cumulative PD

或者用公式也能算,unconditional PD=2个累积违约概率相减,那么对于2年的unconditional PD来说,就是2年的累积违约概率-0年的累积违约概率,0年的时候没有任何违约,0年的累积违约概率=0,所以2年的累积违约概率=2年的unconditional PD。

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