NO.PZ2023010410000006
问题如下：
Several years later, the Beckers again meet with Frost. Their investable portfolio is now valued at USD 7.0 million. The Beckers state that their primary goal is to maintain their current living standard as long as they live. The Beckers also want to leave a charitable gift of at least USD 5.0 million from their investable assets after they have both died. However, they are not willing to risk running out of money in their old age to achieve this secondary goal. The Beckers agree with Frost to assume a 25-year time horizon.
Frost produces Monte Carlo simulations for the Beckers using two portfolios with different asset allocations. The simulations use a long series of historical index data for each asset class in the two portfolios. The resulting distributions of terminal values are shown in Exhibit 1. All terminal values are after expected taxes and spending needs have been met.
Determine, based
on the Monte Carlo simulations, which portfolio (A or B) will better allow the
Beckers to achieve their goals. Justify your response with one reason related
to risk.
选项：
解释：
Portfolio A will
better allow the Beckers to achieve their primary financial goal of maintaining
their living standard until both have died. This is because the portfolio has a
higher probability of achieving a positive terminal value.
请问为什么这道题不选B？为什么是看总的有没有positive value，而不是看客户目标呢？客户想要有5million做慈善，Portfolio B有75% 可能Terminal Value大于500万，而Portfolio A只有50%不到的可能Terminal value才大于50%，所以为什么不选Portfolio B呢？感觉说只是因为portfolio a has a higher probability of achieving a positive terminal value有一点牵强，这个答案等于对谁都适用，不是只针对这个客户自己的投资目标的。麻烦解释一下，谢谢！
