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EmilyZhou · 2024年08月03日

老师麻烦解释下这道题可以吗 不太懂

NO.PZ2024022701000193

问题如下:

The observation that a large-capitalization company's stock price is inflated after the company releases unexpected good news at year end is most likely related to the:

选项:

A.value effect.

B.overreaction effect.

C.turn-of-the-year effect.

解释:

Solution
  1. Incorrect because the value effect is a market anomaly that value stocks, which are generally referred to as stocks that have below-average price-to-earnings (P/E) and market-to-book (M/B) ratios, and above-average dividend yields, have consistently outperformed growth stocks over long periods of time. This is a cross-sectional anomaly and is not related to an information release.

  2. Correct because the overreaction effect or anomaly is described as the propensity for investors (to) overreact to the release of unexpected public information. Therefore, stock prices will be inflated (depressed) for those companies releasing good (bad) information. In other words, inflated (depressed) here means the change of value that is overshooting (undershooting) the fair (intrinsic) value after incorporating the new information, rather than the price action that goes up (down) itself.

  3. Incorrect because the turn-of-the-year effect is a calendar anomaly that stock market returns in January were significantly higher compared to the rest of the months of the year, with most of the abnormal returns reported during the first five trading days in January. This is a time-series anomaly related to the calendar but not an information release.

Market Efficiency

老师麻烦解释下这道题可以吗 不太懂

1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年08月03日

同学你好,这个问题最重要的字眼就是inflated,要看懂这个字眼,就可以做对这道题。

请看下面网页的截图,inflated不是普通的股价上涨,而是股价上涨的毫无道理,涨得太多了的意思。

所以这道题是说,当一个大盘公司的由于释放了一个超预期的好消息的时候,股价一下子就涨的太多了,是最有可能什么原因导致的。

既然股价涨得太多了,超过了合理范围,那最有可能的就是投资者听到这个好消息后,一股脑的都买入了这个公司的股票,而忽略了这个公司的合理价值其实并不值这么多,这就是典型的over reaction effect,所以应该选B

既然股价是非合理的上涨,那就肯定不是价值投资——A选项的value effect,根本没有这种说法,所以A是错的

C选项turn off the year effect,是和calendar effect相关的,是指股票会在年底的时候表现的特别差,然后在次年年初的时候表现的特别好,和本题提到的公司释放超预期的好消息后股价上涨没有任何关系,所以C错

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