C选项

问题如下：

To project the assets and liabilities of a pension plan using a number of different assumptions, the most appropriate method to employ is:

选项：

A.Monte Carlo simulation because it can evaluate the effect of changes in assumptions.

B.Monte Carlo simulation because it can provide more insights into cause and effect relationships than analytical methods

C.historical simulation because risk not represented in the time period observed can be integrated in the simulation

解释：

A is correct. Monte Carlo simulation is better suited to hypothetical "what if" analysis than historical simulation. To model a pension plan's status under a number of different hypothetical assumptions affecting the assets and liabilities, Monte Carlo simulation is the most appropriate method B is incorrect because Monte Carlo simulation is not an analytical method that can provide great insights into cause and effect relationships. It is a complement to analytical methods.

C is incorrect because historical simulation is not as well suited to hypothetical "what if" analysis as is Monte Carlo simulation. While historical simulation is easier to model because it relies on data from the past to predict future probability distributions, it is not as well suited for meeting the goal of projecting the plan's assets and liabilities under different assumptions.