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Veronica0073 · 2024年07月28日

没看懂题干用意

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NO.PZ202110140100000505

问题如下:

Based on the statistical study performed by GWP, which of the following represents a suggested course of action if GWP were to conduct Monte Carlo simulation analyses on the factor strategies?

选项:

A.Inverse transformation B.Bootstrapping C.Sensitivity analysis

解释:

C is correct.

Performing sensitivity analysis represents best practice given these characteristics, because the user could test different probability distributions that relax the assumptions of the normal distribution, for example.

A is incorrect. Inverse transformation is a method of random observation generation, often used in simulation.

B is incorrect. Bootstrapping refers to random sampling with replacement, often used in historical simulation.

他不是再问说如果要用MCS,肯定会做什么步骤吗?那答案不就是Random number generator发射随机变量找到利率变动路径?和sensitivity analysis有什么关系?sensitivity analysis不是用来提供Non-normal distribution情形下的MCD吗?这题和背景都没说MCD的缺陷啊

1 个答案

品职助教_七七 · 2024年07月28日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


这道题问的是如果要做MCS,那么还建议配合着做什么(suggested course of action)。

“Random number generator发射随机变量”是MCS里面内含的一个步骤,做MCS的时候就直接包含这个过程了,不需要额外采取行动,和这个题意不是很搭。

这道题解题的关键描述是“...these distributions were non-normal based on their negative skewness, excess kurtosis, and tail dependence”。是通过这句话说明了“sensitivity analysis不是用来提供Non-normal distribution情形下的MCS吗”。

所以,由于分布不是正态的,就需要逐个分析这些因子(egative skewness, excess kurtosis, and tail dependence)会带来的影响,此时就需要做sensitivity analysis来配合和补充MCS。

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