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李晨昱 · 2024年07月25日

B是啥意思 麻烦解释下

NO.PZ2023040301000196

问题如下:

Which of the following statements about scenario analysis is most accurate?

选项:

A.

Scenario analysis provides a point estimate forecast

B.

Forecast scenarios can be compared to forecasts implied by current valuations

C.

Generic risk factors in scenario analysis are assumed to affect all companies in the same way

解释:

Investors compare these scenarios with other analysts’ (e.g., sell-side analysts) forecasts for a company, as well as forecasts implied by current valuations, to make investment decisions.

A is incorrect because rather than develop single point estimate forecasts, analysts make several forecast scenarios that vary based on different outcomes with respect of key risk factors.

C is incorrect because the final step in forecasting involves incorporating the possibility of different outcomes based on key risk factors as well as judging their likelihood of occurrence. Generic risk factors that affect all companies—but to varying degrees include changes in the business cycle, competition, inflation and deflation, and technological developments.

B是啥意思 麻烦解释下

1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年07月25日

同学你好,一般做公司估值的时候,都是先按照一种基础假设情景进行估计,从而确认一个公司的equity价值

然后,分析师会在额外设计2到3种甚至更多的情景,然后由这些情景又可以分别计算出对应的公司equity 价值

这样公司的基础假设下的估值,就可以和不同情景假设下的估值进行比较,从而就可以给投资者提供更多的信息——譬如经济状况更好的时候,公司估值可以比基础情况好多少,如果经济状况非常差的时候,公司估值又会比基础情况差多少

B选项就是上面这段描述的意思

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