解析错误 题目中讲到target range是2.5-2.75，低于当前implierate 2.825. 那么应该是降息预期。没看懂2.75-3是怎么意思
解析错误 题目中讲到target range是2.5-2.75，低于当前implierate 2.825. 那么应该是降息预期。没看懂2.75-3是怎么意思
NO.PZ2022123002000047 问题如下 SarKo, a private wealthaiser in Singapore, is veloping a short-term interest rate forecast for herprivate wealth clients who have holngs in the US fixeincome markets. Konee to unrstancurrent market expectations for possible upcoming centralbank (i.e., US FerReserve Boar rate actions. The current prifor thefefun futures contraexpiring after the next FOMC meeting is 97.175. Thecurrent ferfun rate target range is set between 2.50% an2.75%.Explain how Ko cuse thisinformation to unrstanpotentimovements in the current ferfunrate. CorreAnswerFirst, Ko knows ththe FFE rate impliethe futures contractpriof 97.175 is 2.825% (= 100 – 97.175). This is the rate thmarketparticipants expeto the average ferfun rate for thmonth.SeconKo shoultermine the probability of a rate change. She knows the 2.825% FFErate impliethe futures signals a fairly high chanththe FOMC willincrease rates 25 bps from its current target range of 2.50%–2.75% to thenew target range of 2.75%–3.00%. She calculates the probability of a rate hikefollows: Ko cannow incorporate this probability of a Ferate hike into her forecast ofshort-term US interest rates. the current prifor the fefun futures contraexpiring after the next FOMC meeting is 97.175, whimeans in in the future ferfun rate is 100-97.175=2.825% ,higher ththe current ferfun rate target range is set between 2.50% an2.75%.so current ferfun rate will increasethe probility of incresing=(2.825%-(2.5%+2.75%)/2)/0.25%=80%
